
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">When it comes to autocratic nations like China, North Korea … and Russia, intelligence analysts often have to interpret subtle changes in the norms. ; What does it mean when some top official is no longer seen in public or has been photoshopped out of official pictures? ; What do rumors mean?</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Just a month ago, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin was seen as having a firm grip on power. ; There were no questions being raised about his health. ; He had – by edict – shut down all quasi-independent news sources. ; He even made it illegal to disagree with his war propaganda. ; He extended the jail term of his chief rival. ; He has essentially ended demonstrations against his regime and war with brutal arrests and the imposition of Draconian jail terms for merely protesting. ; He put the “Butcher of Syria” at the head of his war on Ukraine.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The main western theory was that Putin is firmly in charge – and will be so for the foreseeable future. ; In past commentaries, I had written about the need to take out Putin – and I did not put any exceptions on the list of methods. ; But there was the conundrum. ; Virtually every western voice agreed that Putin had to go. ; Even President Biden said as much out loud. ; But, virtually every western voice did not say how it would be possible. ; As in the old song, the “irresistible force” was up against the “immovable object.” ; And as the song concluded, “something has to give.”</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">There are now signs that something has in the case of Putin.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">One of the options I and most other pundits and analysts laid out for the removal of Putin was an internal coup. ; It is based on the theory that those around Putin would recognize the danger of his madness and eventually be forced to take action. ; The situation was not unlike failed attempts to kill Hitler orchestrated by some of his top military advisors.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">In the past couple of weeks, there have been rumors questioning the invincibility of Putin. ; Initially, it was about his health. ; There were whispers about cancer, leukemia, and Parkinson’s Disease. ; Then there was talk about surgery. ; Within the rumors was the name of the man who would hold the reigns of power while Putin was under anesthesia – a guy potentially more dangerous than Putin, security chief Nikolai Patrushev.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">About that time, I began to wonder and speculate if this was the lead to an eventually report that Putin did not survive his surgery. ; That is how those things happen in secretive Moscow. ;</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">And now something even curious has occurred – something that cast even a darker cloud over the future – and possibly the life expectancy – of the Madman of Moscow.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Former Col. Mikhail Khodaryonok – a popular media defense analyst – was a panelist on the tightly controlled airwaves.  ; His comments were offered up at a time when we have been led to believe that nothing appears in the state-controlled news media without the approval of Putin – and certainly nothing that pushes back against his war policies and propaganda &#8212; nothing that tells the truth about the war. ; Such talk supposedly results in jail time.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Khodaryonok made statements in direct opposition to Putin’s propaganda. ; He said that &#8220;The main deficiency of our military-political position is that we are in full geopolitical isolation, and however much we would hate to admit this, virtually the entire world is against us.&#8221;</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Referring to Putin’s propaganda claims that the Ukrainian military is suffering low morale, Khodaryonok countered by referring to the official version as “information tranquilizers” and said, &#8220;All of that (low Ukrainian morale), put mildly, is false.&#8221;</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Khodaryonok pulled the rug out from under Putin’s narrative that Ukraine is not an independent nation, but part of Russia&#8217;s populated Russian-speaking people who want to be reunited with the Motherland. ; Their desires are being thwarted by an illegitimate Nazi Regime. ; That was not Khodaryonok’s take on the situation. ; He said the Ukrainians were “fighting for their country.”</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Khodaryonok is not the only voice to be piercing the Putin propaganda. ; Separatist Commander Igor Girkin reacted to Russia’s failing effort to take over Ukraine by blasting Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu in the strongest terms. ; Girkin said, “I directly accuse Sergei Shoigu of, at minimum, criminal negligence.  ; I have no grounds to accuse him of treason, but I would suspect it.” ; Shogiu has since dropped from the public eye – and is now said to have had “a massive heart attack.”</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The use of the term “swan song” in the headline was not a casual selection. Russia has an unusual history of having Tchaikovsky’s “Swan Lake” used as a code for the Russian people. ; The message could indicate a change in leadership or even the death of a leader. ; It could indicate opposition to a leader. ; It all depends on which of several versions of “Swan Lake” is performed. ; A signal could be the position of the ballerina’s foot. ; ;</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">A much longer explanation is contained in an online article in Newsweek by Brynn Shiovitz entitled. “Is Putin Dead? Pay Attention When Russia Starts Broadcasting ‘Swan Lake’.” ; In the article, Brynn writes:</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><em>“</em><em>The airing of the Soviet recording of the ballet made NBC’s nightly news … leaving many Americans puzzled by the telecast of old Swan Lake footage during dead airtime. But TV Rain&#8217;s gesture was perfectly legible to Russians. Symbolizing much more than nostalgia, it was the latest in over a half-century of Russian and Soviet media utilizing the ballet as an indication of crisis—and even leadership change.”</em></p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">In view of the overwhelming world reaction, the criticisms from within the Kremlin, and the use of “Swan Lake” to fill in media airtime – perhaps Putin is looking for an exit ramp or has been pushed off on one. ; ;</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The pugnacious and acerbic dictator seems to have softened his jingoistic propaganda rhetoric – at least a bit. ; He has flipped from threatening a severe response if Finland and Sweden joined NATO to passive acceptance. ; For the moment, he does not seem to be escalating his war effort. ; The civilians of Mariupol have been rescued and the soldiers part of a negotiated prisoner exchange. ; He told leaders of a few of his puppet nations that he now has “no problem” with Finland and Sweden joining NATO, as long as there are no nuclear weapons stationed in the Nordic nations.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">With events like this swirling around Putin, we may next see him trying out as the main character in “Where’s Waldo.”  ; Stay tuned.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">So, there ‘tis.</p>

Are We Seeing Putin’s Swan Song … Russian Style?
