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Are Republicans Actually on Track to Win Big in November?

<p>As the midterm elections approach quickly&comma; political strategists are busy making their predictions about the possible outcomes&period;&nbsp&semi;&nbsp&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<div>Republicans have had several recent wins in the last year&comma; including the tax plan&period; Not to mention&comma; the unemployment rate has hit an all-time low at below 4 percent&period;&nbsp&semi;<&sol;div>&NewLine;<div>&nbsp&semi;<&sol;div>&NewLine;<div>This has helped President Donald Trump&&num;8217&semi;s approval rating recently&comma; but the rating is still under 50 percent&comma; so could the&nbsp&semi;midterm elections halt the GOP from making progress&quest;<&sol;div>&NewLine;<div>&nbsp&semi;<&sol;div>&NewLine;<div>Trump&&num;8217&semi;s approval rating is currently around 42 percent&period; His rating among Republicans is at 87 percent&comma; 35 percent among independents&comma; and it&&num;8217&semi;s at about 7 percent among Democrats&period;&nbsp&semi;<&sol;div>&NewLine;<div>&nbsp&semi;<&sol;div>&NewLine;<div>But some political strategists&nbsp&semi;are arguing that Trump&&num;8217&semi;s approval rating is undervalued&period;&nbsp&semi;<&sol;div>&NewLine;<div>&nbsp&semi;<&sol;div>&NewLine;<div>&&num;8220&semi;Neil Newhouse&comma; a Republican pollster&comma; is one of them&period; &ldquo&semi;There&rsquo&semi;s a lot of stuff going on that we just haven&rsquo&semi;t seen before&comma;&rdquo&semi; he said&comma;&&num;8221&semi;&nbsp&semi;writes <em>The Washington Post&period;<&sol;em> &&num;8220&semi;Newhouse sent along a chart that compares four previous wave elections&colon; 1994&comma; 2006&comma; 2010 and 2014&period; In all cases&comma; the percentage of people who&comma; at the time of the election&comma; said the country was heading in the right direction was just below 30&period; By his measure&comma; it&rsquo&semi;s currently 39 percent&period; &ldquo&semi;Can you have a wave election if &lsquo&semi;right direction&rsquo&semi; is 38 or 40 percent&quest;&rdquo&semi; he said&period; &ldquo&semi;Is that possible&quest;&rdquo&semi;&nbsp&semi;<&sol;div>&NewLine;<div>&nbsp&semi;<&sol;div>&NewLine;<div>With that in mind&comma; Newhouse thinks Trump&&num;8217&semi;s approval rating is actually higher&period;&nbsp&semi;<&sol;div>&NewLine;<div>&nbsp&semi;<&sol;div>&NewLine;<div>&ldquo&semi;It ought to be 10 points or eight points higher&comma;&rdquo&semi; said Newhouse&period; &ldquo&semi;There&rsquo&semi;s no precedent for a president since 1980 of having approval six to seven points above &lsquo&semi;right direction&period;&rsquo&semi; None&period;&rdquo&semi;<&sol;div>&NewLine;<div>&nbsp&semi;<&sol;div>&NewLine;<div>Democrats&comma; on the other hand&comma; are arguing that the public finds the recent political landscape unpredictable and this will work in their favor&period;<&sol;div>&NewLine;<div>&nbsp&semi;<&sol;div>&NewLine;<div>&ldquo&semi;The level of anxiety around Trump&comma; the desperation for change&comma; is palpable&comma;&rdquo&semi; said pollster Geoff Garin&comma; who is confident about the Democratic wins come November&period; &&num;8221&semi; I don&rsquo&semi;t think national polls can capture this organic&comma; bottom-up&period;&&num;8221&semi;&nbsp&semi;<&sol;div>&NewLine;<div>&nbsp&semi;<&sol;div>&NewLine;<div>The Cook Political Report has recently predicted that Republicans may have some difficulty in securing more seats in November&period;&nbsp&semi;<&sol;div>&NewLine;<div>&nbsp&semi;<&sol;div>&NewLine;<div>&&num;8220&semi;In July 2017&comma; the Cook team said the number of Republican districts rated as&nbsp&semi;toss-up&nbsp&semi;or worse was just eight&period; By January of this year&comma; there were 20 GOP districts at most risk&period; Its most recent rating showed that number now at 30&comma;&&num;8221&semi; writes <em>The Washington Post&period;<&sol;em> &&num;8220&semi;Those numbers exclude districts rated as leaning in one direction or another&comma; which also have moved against Republicans&period; By comparison&comma; the number of Democratic toss-ups has moved from four to six to three at those benchmarks&period;&&num;8221&semi;&nbsp&semi;<&sol;div>&NewLine;<div>&nbsp&semi;<&sol;div>&NewLine;<div>But there are several factors working in the GOP lawmakers&&num;8217&semi; favor&period;&nbsp&semi;<&sol;div>&NewLine;<div>&nbsp&semi;<&sol;div>&NewLine;<div>Trump has gotten more involved in the primary elections and has backed Republican candidates&period; The Trump administration has made impressive strides when it comes to North Korea and the economy is performing better than expected&period;&nbsp&semi;<&sol;div>&NewLine;<div>&nbsp&semi;<&sol;div>&NewLine;<div>So only time will tell&period;&nbsp&semi;<&sol;div>&NewLine;<div>&nbsp&semi;<&sol;div>&NewLine;<div>&ldquo&semi;Nobody&rsquo&semi;s saying the blue wave is not going to happen&comma;&rdquo&semi; said Newhouse&period; &ldquo&semi;The question is&comma; how deep is it going to be&quest;&rdquo&semi;<&sol;div>&NewLine;<div>&nbsp&semi;<&sol;div>&NewLine;<div><strong>Author&&num;8217&semi;s note&colon;<&sol;strong> The fact that <em>The Washington Post<&sol;em> has published an article speculating that a blue wave may not be coming means that the liberal media has started to recognize a trend&period; This is a good sign for Republicans&period;&nbsp&semi;<&sol;div>&NewLine;<div>&nbsp&semi;<&sol;div>&NewLine;<div><strong>Editor&&num;8217&semi;s note&colon;<&sol;strong> The polls are so biased against Trump at this point&comma; that it is tough to read the impact&period; But the Republicans have some major advantages&comma; especially in the Senate races where a wide majority of challenges are to Democratic seats&period;<&sol;div>&NewLine;

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