Any chance Sinema or Manchin switching parties?
The answer at this time is “probably not.” But what keeps open the door of possibility is the fact that it is the topic of speculation in the media – including the left-wing newsies.
One factor that may open consideration by Senators Sinema and Manchin are the number of times folks in the Democratic Party accuse them of being “traitors to the Party,” “bad Democrats” or not even Democrats at all. MSNBC’s Joy Reid flatly stated that Sinema and Manchin are not Democrats. Some say they are DINO’s – Democrats in name only.
Sinema and Manchin have both been accosted by Democrat activists. In Sinema’s case, a number of members of her advisory committee have quit in protest – and have launched an early campaign to defeat her in 2024.
Some Democrats have complained that President Biden is not taking a harsher approach to the two. He has always been a bit complimentary and understanding of their positions – and hopeful that at the end of the day, they will be on board. Of course, if Biden were to attack them the possibility of switching parties would gain traction.
With so many Democrats wanting to kick Sinema and Manchin out of the Democratic Party, it seems only natural that the thought would arise as speculation in the press – and possibly in their respective minds.
Though they are unlikely to switch parties, the odds are slightly different between Sinema and Manchin. I handicap Manchin as close to zero – maybe a less than 5 percent chance. I would put Sinema at something closer to a 15 to 20 percent chance at this time.
Manchin has a much longer history as a regular Democrat – and he has been able to survive in a predominantly Republican state. It is not at all certain whether he will run for re-election in 2022. If he does, he would probably get re-elected – and blocking the progressive agenda would be a plus. He is not getting the kind of blow-back from the folks in West Virginia as Sinema is getting in Arizona.
Sinema is a freshman senator. Her roots in the Democratic Party are not as deep as Manchin’s. She may have a better chance of re-election by switching parties because of all the hostility she is experiencing from grassroots Democrats.
She could also command a very high price in exchange for switching. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell would reward her handsomely. She would get her pick of committee assignments – and even a chairmanship of a subcommittee since her crossing the aisle would give the GOP the majority in the Senate – and put McConnell back in the Majority Leader position.
The GOP would make all sorts of pledges to support her fundraising. She would get a nice contribution from the Senate Republican Campaign Committee.
As much as the Democrats would revile Sinema, Republicans would make her a national hero. She would not only hand the GOP control of the Senate, but she would completely crash Biden’s grandiose plan to fundamentally change America. He would probably get his physical Infrastructure Bill passed – unless if is defeated by the progressives in his own Party — but the Reconciliation Bill would be dead on arrival in the Senate.
So, there ‘tis.