Site icon The Punching Bag Post

A Real Look at the Polls: Trump is Indeed Catching up to Hillary

<p><a href&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;punchingbagpost&period;com&sol;donald-trump-softens-his-stance-on-illegal-immigration&sol;" target&equals;"&lowbar;blank" rel&equals;"noopener"><strong>As I wrote in a previous article&comma;<&sol;strong><&sol;a> Donald Trump&rsquo&semi;s campaign is evolving&period; The brash billionaire is sticking to the teleprompter and softening some of his harsh viewpoints &lpar;immigration&comma; for example&rpar; to appeal to a wider audience&period;&nbsp&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>The latest polls reflect these positive changes&comma;&nbsp&semi;with Trump making significant gains against Hillary during the past three weeks&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Much of this success is credited to Kellyanne Conway&comma; a political strategist who was hired on as Trump&&num;8217&semi;s campaign manager earlier this month&period;&nbsp&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>While polls typically are not accurate within more than 3-5 points&comma; each poll does tend to be accurate relative to itself&comma; and many August&nbsp&semi;polls show that Trump is indeed closing the gap&period;&nbsp&semi;We selected only the major polls that had polling data from this week and the first week of August&period;&nbsp&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>When you add Johnson and Stein to the contest&comma; polling data from Economist&sol;YouGov&comma; Gravis&comma; Monmouth&comma; and Reuters&sol;Ipsos each showed a substantial loss&period; Clinton&rsquo&semi;s lead has dwindled by an average of 3&period;5 points since the first week of August&period;&nbsp&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>In a one-on-one contest&comma;&nbsp&semi;data from Economist&sol;YouGov shows Clinton&rsquo&semi;s lead has decreased from &plus;7 &lpar;Aug&period; 6-9&rpar; to just &plus;3 &lpar;Aug&period; 19-23&rpar;&period;&nbsp&semi;The latest LA Times&sol;USC poll shows Trump and Clinton in a dead tie with 44 points each&comma; compared to Clinton&rsquo&semi;s &plus;4 lead just two weeks ago&period;&nbsp&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Polling is a very scientific practice in theory&comma; but it is very difficult in practice to choose samples that reflect evenly across the population in the dozens&comma; perhaps hundreds of relevant demographics&period; A polling agency must actually recruit the right people and keep track of a thousand or more potential respondents is a difficult process&period; This is why polls vary so widely&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>The result is polling agencies tend to use largely the same respondents with each poll&period; While the samples maybe skewed enough to have a margin of error of 4-5&percnt;&comma; changes in the opnions in the same polling sample are substantially more important&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>In short&comma; the math is real&comma; Trump is gaining&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>&nbsp&semi;<&sol;p>&NewLine;

Exit mobile version