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A new year look at Biden’s numbers – and his prospects

A new year look at Biden’s numbers – and his prospects

We have now entered the 2024 presidential election year and are eight and a half months away from the opening of the first early voting.  Good time to take a look at President Biden’s numbers.

Some say it is too early to make any predictions based on current polling and the status of the major issues.  That may be true, but possibly less so this year for two reasons.  Early voting brings us closer to the actual voting.  Looking at Election Day as the target date is old thinking.  By then, more than half of America is expected to have already voted.  Voting starts in mid-September.

Your second reason that today’s polls may be more predictive of the outcome than in the past is more subjective.  It does appear that the electorate is more locked in on their vote than in past elections.  The undecideds are a smaller portion of the electorate than is usually the case at this time in the campaign season.  Anecdotally, I have not come across anyone who is not firmly committed if it is a race between Biden and Trump.

Today’s numbers may be important if they do not drastically change in the next few months.  As Democrat strategist James Carville has stated, if the election were today, Biden loses.  Others have echoed that opinion.  It is why Democrats publicly and privately are in a state of panic.  It is the reason that the majority of Democrat voters do not want Biden as their standard bearer this year.

Given those caveats, what do the numbers tell us about Biden’s chances for reelection to a second term?

The overarching number is the so-called favorability – or what folks think of Biden overall.  His current rating in most polls is very low – hovering in the 37 percent range.  That is a historic low.  Presidents with favorability ratings in that neighborhood at this point lost their election.

Even worse for Biden, his approval rating is at 35 percent in the key battleground states, according to the most recent Newsweek poll.

Biden’s low favorability rating is not a snapshot in time.  He has been underwater – below 50 percent – for the past two years.  It fell into negative range following his unpopular and deadly withdrawal from Afghanistan and has not gone up since.  The trajectory has been a long decline to the current level.  It is hard to imagine that it could go any lower, but optimism in the past proved unwarranted.

Biden does not do as well as he should even among Democrats.  An Associated Press Poll shows that a whopping 69 percent of Democrat voters would rather have someone else at the head of the ticket.

Elections are decided upon what issues the voters decided to decide upon.  So, where does Biden stand on the issues?  Biden is underwater on virtually all the major issues except one – abortion, with a favorable rating above 50 percent.

Even in issues that Biden has at the center of his signature campaign messages, his approval ratings are below water – job creation (42%), infrastructure (42%) and climate control (38%), according to an ABC Poll.

In other key issues, Biden is rated even lower – Immigration (26%), crime (36%) and foreign affairs (38%).

If past elections are any indication, the voters will have the economy on their minds as they cast their ballots.  In handling the economy, voters give Biden an anemic 39 percent favorability.  Specifically in terms of inflation, Biden gets only a 28 percent favorability rating.

Perhaps the issue that is most difficult to evaluate is … age and vitality.  That is because there has been no history of age and vitality being a primary concern of voters.  Not even after President Eisenhower had a heart attack at the age of 64 during his first term.

In general, the vast majority of Americans (75%) believe that Biden is too old to serve four more years as President.  That does not mean they will not vote for him if the alternative is Trump. 

A December 9 Wall Street Journal Poll put Trump ahead 47 to 43 percent.  That tracks several other major polls.  It is difficult to find any credible poll that puts Biden in the lead as of today.  Even worse, the New York Times/Sienna College Poll shows Trump ahead in five key battleground states – more than he is likely to need to beat Biden.

One formidable problem for Biden is how and where he is hemorrhaging support.  The “how” involves turnout or “enthusiasm” in the polls.  Most polls tend to favor Republicans in terms of enthusiasm – or extremely likely to vote.  But it is not so easy to measure the difference between voters who will stay home and those who will switch their vote.  That is where the “where” comes in.

Biden is hemorrhaging with a key constituency.  In terms of the younger voters (18 to 29), those likely to vote Biden has dropped from 57 percent in 2020 to 49 percent in recent polls.

According to the 2023 Emerson College Poll, Biden’s margin over Trump with Hispanic voters has narrowed to 3 percent – down from 14 percent a year earlier.  The same poll showed Biden’s support among black voters dropped from 62 percent in 2022 to the current 47 percent.

Looking at the all-important swing states, the New York Times/Sienna College Poll reported that Biden’s support among “nonwhites” has fallen an astonishing 33 percent from his exit poll numbers in 2020 – with Trump gaining 22 percent from black voters over his 2020 numbers.

There are granular measures of Biden’s voter appeal that do not make it in the top media reports.  For example, there are the party switchers.  In the battleground state of Pennsylvania 36,000 Democrats re-registered as Republicans while only 16,000 Republicans switched to the Democratic Party.

If these numbers hold up at all, Trump could be looking at a landslide victory.  But most observers do not believe they will.

Team Biden is banking a lot on their strategy of demonizing Trump as a fascist authoritarian who will bring an end to American democracy.  But the voters apparently are not buying it.  In recent polls over the past few years, voters say that Trump does a better job protecting democracy.

An Emerson Poll in 2021 gave Trump a 49 to 42 percent advantage over Biden on the issue of democracy.  In a 2021 Morning Consult/Politico Poll, it was 44 to 41 percent Trump over Biden.  And in 2022, the same poll gave the edge again to Trump at 45 to 40 percent.  In a more recent NBC News Poll (December 5, 2023), Trump topped Biden by 47 to 43 percent as the best defending of democracy.  According to the NBC Poll, 51 percent of voters disapproved of Biden’s handling of democracy.

What is remarkable in these numbers is how consistent they have been over recent years even as Democrats and the left-leaning media have revved up the attacks and the fearmonger narratives against Trump.  Trump’s ability to retain popularity with at least half the American public is driving the progressive elite stark raving mad.

Looking at all this, one can appreciate Carville’s assessment that if the election were held today, Biden would lose.  So, what are the likely things that could change in the roughly 280 days when early voting commences?

Since the economy is the number one issue on voters’ minds, a change there could make a difference.  Some improvement, such as lower inflation and lower gas prices – felt by voters – could help Biden a bit, but a downturn in the economy would probably end any hope of reelection.  And economists are predicting both outcomes – a rosy view and a grim view — depending on their political views.

Biden cannot change the age issue, and this is likely to loom larger as the weeks go by.  It is doubtful that he can do anything to improve the situation on the border, with the crime issue or anything to do with the wars in Ukraine and Gaza.  There is no political win to be had in terms of climate change.  Unless he drops his support for Israel, he cannot reclaim the Arab or the youth vote. And then he loses the Jewish vote.

The wild card is Trump.  If Trump gets convicted prior to the election, will that cause a shift in voter preference?  Or will Trump say or do something that will cause voters leaning to him to abandon ship.  So far, the villainization of Trump has not worked.  And on the remote chance that Trump fails to win the GOP nomination, the entire anti-Trump strategy collapses.  The Republican standard bearer – be it Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis – would coast into the Oval Office according to virtually all polling.

There is still time for things to change dramatically, but at this stage, it would not be wise to bet the ranch on a Biden victory.

So, there ‘tis.

About The Author

Larry Horist

So,there‘tis… The opinions, perspectives and analyses of Larry Horist Larry Horist is a businessman, conservative writer and political strategist with an extensive background in economics and public policy. Clients of his consulting firm have included such conservative icons as Steve Forbes and Milton Friedman. He has served as a consultant to the Nixon White House and travelled the country as a spokesman for President Reagan’s economic reforms. He has testified as an expert witness before numerous legislative bodies, including the U. S. Congress. Horist has lectured and taught courses at numerous colleges and universities, including Harvard, Northwestern, DePaul universities, Hope College and his alma mater, Knox College. He has been a guest on hundreds of public affairs talk shows, and hosted his own program, “Chicago In Sight,” on WIND radio. Horist was a one-time candidate for mayor of Chicago and served as Executive Director of the City Club of Chicago, where he led a successful two-year campaign to save the historic Chicago Theatre from the wrecking ball. An award-winning debater, his insightful and sometimes controversial commentaries appear frequently on the editorial pages of newspapers across the nation. He is praised by readers for his style, substance and sense of humor. According to one reader, Horist is the “new Charles Krauthammer.” He is actively semi-retired in Boca Raton, Florida where he devotes his time to writing. So, there ‘tis is Horist’s signature sign off.


  1. Tom

    Well Biden might have as much legal trouble as Trump until its all over.

    Biden can turn it around in a couple of months, but he needs to abandon (at least temporarily) his left wing progressives in favor of a moderate view. That is what we Independents are looking for. What Biden should do is: 1) Agree with GOP and solve the border issue long term; 2) Re-instate remain in Mexico and deport, stop all of this fake asylum; 3) Back off on the environmental crap; 4) modify policy to promote gasoline high mileage cars and publicly make a statement that the country is not yet prepared to go full EV but will continue to work on it and we need an interim solution that includes hybrids made in America. He can also work policy to get the coal fire power plants removed quicker which would do more good than anything else. This would also promote jobs. 5) Stop demonizing Trump, it just gives Trump more press time and coverage.

    Bidens biggest issue right now is his own party, AND Tulsi Gabbard who said the following very recently, “Gabbard explained that the modern-day Democrat Party is an authoritarian movement that believes in jailing political opponents, censoring free speech, and depriving Americans of their fundamental right to pick their own leaders.

    “Yes, I have no doubt about that,” Gabbard stated. “This is the M.O. of the Democrat elite. They will stop at nothing to try to maintain their power, even if it means taking away the right to vote of Americans. They have no issue taking Trump off the ballot, they have no issue pursuing him and persecuting him through a weaponized and politicized Department of Justice. They have no qualms about doing whatever they feel is necessary to hold on to power. It is ridiculous that we are having this conversation in the United States of America.” See ** So he needs to address this. Independents like me read this and this concerns us more than the GOP issues and Trump issues.

    • Harold blankenship

      The best advice is to remove anything that smells like a democrat from the country A trip to China or Cuba would be appropriate

      • Tom

        Actually, I have taken trips to China. I had a lot of fun there. Perhaps you should take a trip to China to see what China is really like. Yes they do exercise more authority over their population, but they also have four times the population of the USA. Most of what I see over there are happy people. Sure China has some issues just like the USA. No country is perfect. Maybe Cuba might be better for the far left and right to both go to. And make them live and eat in the same 2 star hotel.


          I’ve done Hong Kong a number of times, but that does not really count…..

          I have a close relative who has been going for decades, speaks the language, and can travel off the grid, but I was doing other things…. Now they are in family mode and if I went, I would be a babysitter, part time, so probably not in the cards.

        • larry Horist

          Tom … My family and I have been to China many times on business and pleasure. We spent a lot of time with the common people in the cities and in the countryside. The people are wonderful and the culture is amazing — as is the food.. China has some of the most beautiful and interesting places on earth.. They love Americans — especially in northern China because we kicked out the Japanese. We had a lot of dealing with government officials at all levels. However, we were mostly there pre-Xi. It is not the same anymore The people are still wonderful, but government officials are up tight or even unfriendly due to the pressure from the top. It is not as easy to do business in China because of the new restrictions.

          • Tom

            Yes I agree Larry, things have changed under Xi. Many Chinese dislike Xi but he has really super concentrated power. I wish I had gone there pre-Xi!

    • Tom

      I would like to read Frank Stetson’s comment on Tulsi Gabbard’s comment.


      Highly evolved my sweet billyduits :>)

      First, at this point, Biden has no legal troubles. He may have Congressional troubles but based on their track record so far, he has no legal problems except Hunter’s. Shame on you for treating allegations as convictions; at least wait for an indictment.

      As a highly evolved Clintonian Democrat, I don’t see Biden favoring left-wing progressives. Most progressives are really pissed at him. Of course Biden needs to stop the influx at the border, but he should not agree with whacko GOP proposals or fear their government shut down. Screw them if they can’t spell compromise. They don’t do any real work anyway. No way should we turn asylum people away to unsafe conditions in Mexico. That’s against our international agreements on asylum so either change the international agreements or live up to our commitments. What fake asylum do you speak of? Fakers should be deported. Why back off environment? What does that even buy you? We are drilling more oil than ever. You want to slow down EVs and add Federal Funding for coal power replacement while backing off the environment? It sounds illogical and half baked as a theory. Why not do all of the above: EV’s steady on, help for coal replacement and hit the environment ever harder. The EV migration is better for the economy, for the environment, and for our future. In the words of the great prophet, Mickey, in Rocky II —-“what are we waiting for? Take this!” Why wait for the inevitability of driving EVs? It’s going to happen, only timing is the question. And many other countries are adopting faster that us; do you want to lose another solar opportunity and become second-string, like in solar panels, batteries, etc. Why not lead in a new technology for a change. Trump is a demon, let’s just call it what it is. Why hide it, or from him. Gabbard is a disgruntled ex-Democrat who quit the party she could not work with, grain of salt time. I did not listen to her before, why now? She has an ax to grind as well. As far as ballot actions, it’s the law. Use it. He does. For an innocent guy, he files more appeals, motions, and crap just to run out the clock. Why, especially if you’re innocent. Why ban him? Because it’s the law. It’s State Law based on State’s Rights to control their elections. So, fair is fair. The DOJ is not weaponized, it’s the law and they are exercising it. NOTHING HAS BEEN TOSSED OUT OR DISMISSED. Everyone of the four indictments is valid; whether all the charges stick is another question, but be assured, this time charges will stick. He is toast in NY for falsifying business records, 31 counts, trial March 25, and really, only the penalty is being determined, he is deem guilty from the bench, at his request. It’s 40 counts in Florida, against Smith, and record-wise, does not look good for Donnie. Four counts in DC, against Smith again, and it’s a narrow, yet creative case, so we will see. And 13 counts in Georgia that he can not escape by becoming President and where his lawyers and others are pleading guilty at a pretty good clip and flipping on him and being in the room with him to be excellent witnesses. He is toast again on this one. So, given all the expected guilt, tell me about weaponizing versus using the law.

      Not sure of your link except to say: AOL? You reading that on your Commodore PC? Can’t log in, so can’t read.

      • Tom

        Hey Frank! Happy new year! Commodore PC! LOL!! That’s a good one. I still use AOL for mail.

        I did not treat any allegations as convictions. You are making that up just like Larry. I merely said he has legal trouble. His congressional trouble stems from his questionable deals with Burisma, China, and of course, Hunter.

        So you think that Tulsi is disgruntled. I agree. But just because a person is disgruntled does not make their words a lie. She is giving a warning. You are apparently unconcerned but Biden should be very concerned which is my point. Independents like Tulsi. She was in the party so she knows. If Tulsi’s message spreads, and it already is, that will be bad for Biden.

        More asylum cases get denied than accepted – that is what I mean by fake asylum cases. They do not meet the standard for asylum. From what I read, somewhere around 70-80% of cases are denied. Biden needs to correct his message which is wrong. The Biden administration labels this made-up visa-like program a “lawful pathway.” But labeling an unconstitutional program “lawful” does not make it, nor the aliens who use it, “legal.” This is promoting more people to come to the ports. He is not telling anyone about this!

        During the shutdown, very few cars on road, the greenhouse gases only went down 6%. Coal fire plants do more harm in this country than cars. Attack the big issues. Its not half backed. There are over 200 in the USA. The largest source of greenhouse gas emissions from human activities in the United States is from burning fossil fuels for electricity, heat, and transportation. EPA tracks total U.S. emissions by publishing the Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks. Last year around 1750 million metric tons of greenhouse gas which is about 32% of total greenhouse gas. Cars emit about 6% Sounds like the only thing half baked is you Frank! LOL

        And by the way, we are charging those EV’s with power from coal fire plants. Again, and EV charged by a coal fire plant only shifts the burden of emissions from the car owner to the power plant. It still ends up in the air! I really think you need to think this one through a little more. I am not saying, nor have I ever said get rid of EVs. I said in my comment to focus on high mileage gasoline, hybrid, and hydrogen cars – and take the EV incentive money and replace the coal fire plants with hydrogen plants. Do this and the air will be much cleaner.


          And I feel like a dinosaur on yahoomail…. Uh, you said he has legal trouble which as far as I can tell, he does not. As far as Congressional troubles, I am not sure anyone is in danger from this House of fools.

          Tulsi Gabbard traded on her one year in Iraq in a field medical unit and another year in cushy Kuwait in the MP to make the House at 21, then vice chair of the DNC until she went Sanders for President and quit. I watched her on FOX slamming Obama over our real problem – radical ISLAM. She wanted to avoid all wars, fight terrorists where there weren’t, said Asad did not use chems (he did), and after her failed Presidential run, turned into a darling of CPAC and all that entails. I did not say she lies, I said I have no interest in what she says. She’s a one-time House wonder who turned to CPAC for the money. IMO. But more important, I find many of her ideas just plain whack. And so did Democrats. She may have been in a party for a bit, but knows? I am not sure what she knows. And I don’t care, so sorry. I really doubt that Gabbard knows the Democratic Elite and she certainly does not have a clue what they do, if that’s what she thinks. Biden should be concerned about his polling numbers, but I don’t think he gives, or needs to give, Gabbard’s CPAC spin comments any listen whatsoever. Better to listen to CPAC itself.

          I think your asylum numbers are high: ** I’ll let you take this apart and see if your view changes. However, my answer would be to fix the process to make the denials faster. As far as the rest, like gun control it’s a painful discussion since nothing is done to fix the problem in its entirety. It’s like the drug supply/demand problem where as long as we have a demand to hire, there will be supply, walls or not. Just put e-verify in place and the demand drops to close to zero overnight and the supply has nowhere to work. Ten States have the mandate, a dozen more for public workers only. It makes most of your issues, and solutions, moot. And then we can focus on illegals here already, dreamers, work visas, and the rest. But let’s get the gorilla off the table and make it — no papers, no work, period. It’s up to Congress.

          I think your greenhouse gas causes by source is off too. Try these charts which clearly show transportation as a major problem in a world where we are actually doing better, but still suck. “In 2021, greenhouse gas emissions from transportation accounted for 28% of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, making it the largest contributor of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. From 1990 to 2021, total transportation emissions from fossil fuel combustion increased by 19%. In 2021, emissions increased by 12%, which followed a decline of 13% in 2020 due to reduced travel demand during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.” *,fuel%20combustion%20increased%20by%2019%25*

          You can play with this one, there’s a nice time series, all suggesting your numbers are off: **
          So buddy, I am in the same place. Even though your stupid coal plants are a State decision where for politics, hatefulness, or just plain ole stupidity, people chose coal, I agree that the Fed could provide incentives using National Tax dollars to cure your mistakes. Good luck in WV…. But I still say, we can do both and I still say why fall father behind other developed nations on the race to replace gas with EV? And I will always drive my gas F-150 V-8 12mpg all-steel 30-year old truck upon equation until banned. Why not, for everyone and anyone. But my next vehicle will be EV, just like my last vehicles was a 50mpg hybrid that cost less than your last new car.

          I got 4.6% from IMF and 8.6% to 17% from NIH. Not sure what that means, but we know transportation is a major cause. Within that, look up big ships. They have no controls and are giant emitters. If we even slowed down the shipping interval from China by a few weeks, we could drop points off the pollution scale for just being patient. Anecdote: I live in NJ’s version of big sky country and, as in the case in most NJ, am close to a glide path to Newark Airport. I can tell pending weather based on the plane’s disappearance. During covid, the air was quiet, crisp, and clean(er). After a year or so, suddenly a plane. Sitting by the pool, my wife and I exclaimed: “it’s over,” as we watch a big FEDERAL EXPRESS sign fly by. Commercial transportation is a huge part of this, they go first, they go often. Nice times although we missed the white noise for a bit, felt end-of-the-world eerie. FYI, I was not baked enough to notice you cherry-picking your facts for spin on this one, mate. That’s not very evolved of you….. And as far as coal plants firing up for EVs, that’s a red herring. Either you govern by the averages or you don’t govern based on corner cases and niches. OR we just don’t offer the incentives to coal states telling them they can have them when they clean up their act. I like the averages for governing better on this one.

          Hope that clarifies. Keep following Gabby, will serve you well no doubt. Or bump up to Rand Paul, his act is a little smoother, he’s a guy who can take a tackle and sue.

          • Tom

            Frank, I merely stated that if Tulsi sends out more messages like that, her messages go to the character of the Democratic Party and speaks to their intentions. I merely said this could be dangerous to Biden and he needs to worry about it. And I already acknowledged that you had no interest. I said Biden is the one that must have interest. Messages like hers can go viral and do damage.

            I believe my numbers on asylum are good. The problem is the numbers are very fluid. But my numbers came from a reliable source and I triple checked them. 2023 numbers I am afraid will be the worst yet. Either way, I think we can agree on 50% of the cases do not meet the criteria, so to me they are fake. Part of the problem is Biden and his little phone app. It is misleading migrants and he is not saying anything about it. Check it out for yourself!

            You are spinning with the emissions data. What you do not realize is how big the catagory “transportation” really is. It includes cars, big trucks, cargo ships that burn the dirtiest of oils, cruise ships, pleasure and fishing boats that are docked all over NJ coast, trains that have oil fire engines, etc. These ALL TOGETHER equal 28%. Yet the one single category of power production is at 25% which is almost as large as all of transportation. My point was that when cars were not being driven, the greenhouse gases only dropped by 6% which was a shock to environmentalist that anticipated a much larger number with which to make their case. So cars are about one-fifth of all transportation emissions as opposed to dirty power plants being 25%. So they shut up about it because they realized that Americans are not stupid!

            Your own article from the EPA points this out if you actually read it. Here is what your article says” “Transportation (28% of 2021 greenhouse gas emissions) – The transportation sector generates the largest share of greenhouse gas emissions. Greenhouse gas emissions from transportation primarily come from burning fossil fuel for our cars, trucks, ships, trains, and planes. Over 94% of the fuel used for transportation is petroleum based, which includes primarily gasoline and diesel.2

            Electricity production (25% of 2021 greenhouse gas emissions) – Electric power generates the second largest share of greenhouse gas emissions and includes emissions from electricity production used by other end use sectors (e.g., industry). In 2021, 60% of our electricity comes from burning fossil fuels, mostly coal and natural gas.3” AND LETS NOT FORGET IN MY STATE, DIRTY POWER PLANTS ARE CHARGING THOSE EV CARS!!

            AND BY THE WAY….. dirty power plants also cause the generation of a lot of coal ash which is a big problem in NC and any area that has a dirty power plant – you get this ash in your rivers, streams, etc. Duke Power recently lost a case to the EPA and must clean up their ash pits. The big argument was who should pay, the stock holders (I am one) or the customers (I am one). Customers say stock holders profited so they should pay. Stock holders say customers got lower electric bills due to coal so they profited as well. I said we all should pay, period!!! YOU HAVE NOT LOOKED AT THE OTHER SIDE OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS CAUSED BY DIRTY POWER PLANTS!

            So you have been a bit disingenuous here because I was talking strictly cars, and you mixed it with “transportation” of all types to make cars sound worse than they are!!!! Shame on you buddy!!! I caught you on this one!!!

            I am not saying do not make EV cars for those that want them. I think its a great new area to explore. But I do not want federal tax dollars given to the car companies. Let the market make the decisions and pay the costs. Period! Concentrate on dirty power plants where we can get clean air and water!!!

            I have been to Newark Airport many a time, your observation is interesting and I believe to be true. But then you lace it with accusations of red herring when it is real, the EV cars in many areas around these 200 dirty power plants are in total causing more coal to burn because they represent significant load to the grid. Even the smallest EV car represents the same air conditioning and heating load as a 1140 square foot home every time it charges!

            Emissions from the manufacturing and the energy sectors contributed the most to recent global increases based on updated information from the IMF’s Climate Change Indicators Dashboard—this is from the IMF that you read and believe! See **

  2. Darren

    Tom, I feel you are correct, but here is some insight I believe will happen next year or in the next three years.
    Trump will become President and the Left will lose their unstable minds.
    It is already proven that the Left will throw most of the population under the Bus just to remain in power
    or rather control of the United States.
    The U.S. will have a pandemic worse then that of a few years ago.
    The Dollar will become quite unstable. All energy will be difficult to obtain.
    Food for the most part will become unaffordable but people will eat.
    This is NOT a DOOM and GLOOM prediction, but
    just purposefully created event generated from the Left just to BURN TRUMP!
    The Truth of how this came to be I feel is already in the works as Democratic Plan B.

    Unoccupied Labs across the United States owned by the Chinees, Biden’s Buds, are housing everything from Aids to the Plague with thousands of Rats in each lab . And for what purpose, as NO one is working there?
    Call me what you want, believe what you want, just remember, I told you so!
    I hope after Trump becomes President the other half of the population wakes up and realizes the lies they have been
    listening to, or it will be just trumps and the GOP fault. Again!

    • Dan tyree

      Civil war is coming. Hope I’m wrong. But be prepared


        I would love to see evidence for any of this tin foil hat thinking.

        • Tom

          Frank, if you google “Is civil war coming to the USA” you will find many articles. Most are right wing. One article, from the LA Times says its all rubbish, no war coming. Most right wingers think the left is unstable and will start it. Tulsi Gabbard’s recent remarks to seem to lend a certain credence to this. Personally, I do not think we are heading toward a civil war but we may be heading towards hyper partisanship. Right now, we Independents and moderates seem to be the buffer that keeps things civil for the most part. But who knows how long that can last.

          • FRANK STETSON

            Heading towards? I think we are there. Plus we have “governing by FOX” where you get credit for sound bytes and a buy for a lack of legislation. A new job description.

            But Josh Hawley running from his constituents like a little girl will never get old. When you thought bubble “do the hustle” with the words “do the hawley,” it’s priceless. “do it, do it, do it, do the hawley, do the hawley.”

            Post the election, there could be some fun, but succession? Doubtful. DeStantisan exists already and they need Northern tax dollars :>) Abbotville is also there, so plenty of places for the disgruntled to seek solace.

          • Tom

            Fun post, I like your funny posts. Yeah I remember the hustle. I still do it and the coffee grinder. Mix the two and all of the 70+ year old chicks will be all over you!!!

            Yeah I agree, we are heading for something already. IT seems to me like we are having a battle for which form of authoritarianism will succeed. Dems and GOPs are both acting more authoritarian. And Gabbard just is a little bit of truth to this that says the character of the Dem party is not as it appears on TV.

            I think there will be many disgruntled folks in 2024, but not many that will vote succession. What will happen with Trump is what the wild card is right now. Can’t wait for the SCOTUS Insurrection Case in February. That’s gonna be must see tv!!! :>)

    • Tom

      Well we will have to wait and see. Economists think the dollar will be relatively stable through 2024. Big question mark is debt. And any new debt because the US will have trouble finding buyers at some point. But nobody knows that that point is, however, signs are starting to appear. Pandemic, maybe maybe not. Flip a coin. We already have food insecurity for about 12 million people. So that is already here. The left is worried, but Biden still does not think he has a big problem because he is winning on the abortion issue and women are over 50% of voters but I think he is wrong in this. He should be worried.

  3. JoeyP

    Biden’s “numbers” are “in the toilet” . . . along with his policies.

    • larry Horist

      JoeyP … In the toilet? They look more like they are down the drain.


    Truman was going to lose to Dewey on the numbers too. Horist was there, he can tell you :>)

    • Harold blankenship

      Frank you mentioned visiting china. Some people love the Chinese cuisine. Did you ever try the cream of Sum Yung Guy? As for Truman, voter fraud was alive and well back then

  5. Frank stetson

    Actually I never said China, I have been to Hong Kong a number of times, but never saw that meal you fancy. Tell us, what does it taste like? Sounds like you really love it. Do you get it to go, or pick it up round back in the alley?

    My goodness but your ability to recall third grade stupid kid jokes. What’s next, famous Chinese books like Yellow River by IP Dailey?


    On December 21st, Horist told us: “BIDEN’S POLLING IS CREATING CHAOS FOR POLITICAL ANALYSTS.” Just over two weeks later and he proclaims: “There is still time for things to change dramatically, but at this stage, it would not be wise to bet the ranch on a Biden victory.” Wow, that’s a sea change for sure. How fast things can change round here. From chaos to betting the ranch in 12 business days.

    Horist seems to be quite agitated over the fact he is winning. It’s knocking the wheels coming off his logic mobile. Hard to whine when you’re winning. Throws his game off. Harshens his mellow. Doesn’t know how to win so he’s whining about how true it must be.

    “Looking at Election Day as the target date is old thinking. By then, more than half of America is expected to have already voted. Voting starts in mid-September” is his prime reason to believe the current predictions, a concept that makes no logical sense unless you believe that early voting means early results means those people are actually answering the survey at a statistically valid level…. Lots of ifs there. There was early voting in the last election, big time, and how did that work out, polling versus end-result wise….. Somehow 2024 is different in that regard? According to PEW: “Most prelection polls in 2020 overstated Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump in the national vote for president, and in some states incorrectly indicated that Biden would likely win or that the race would be close when it was not.”

    His second less valuable reason to make predictions includes the word “Anecdotally.” Need I say more?

    With no reason to know better than before, Horist boldly goes where many a political hack pundit has gone before and makes early predictions based on the “fact” that earlier voting, which is not earlier than before, and probably less in volume in 2024, makes a difference that it did not make before. Got it. Amazingly, he is still winning, whining and wondering what the hell is going on. Just like the rest of us.

    “Today’s numbers may be important if they do not drastically change in the next few months.” Eureka!!! Brilliance or brain fart, you be the judge. My story here may be important if the facts do not drastically change in the next few days, weeks, or months.

    As to the rest, all I can say is it’s too early yet. I said watch Christmas as the next benchmark. Christmas was OK which is better than bad. Current number is up 3.1% increase in sales, but that’s MasterCard data. Online was over 6% and restaurants were the biggest winner. Bottom line is numbers have been better, but these are good and expect final tally to go up.

    Likewise, January jobs report was solid heralding in 2 years of low unemployment not seen since the Vietnam War. Not gangbuster, but a win.

    4Q23 GDP expected at 2.9%, again, a solid number. Would love to see 3.9, but will take the win.

    Fact is that the FED massively cut the money supply and Americans are buying, spending, investing, working more than ever without a recession in sight. Trump had a recession. Biden is pulling off a miracle. And it’s not just us anymore. England’s xmas sales seemed to mirror ours. The world may be waking up economically again. Even Asian markets are showing signs of life.

    Next checkpoint will be 4q numbers, expected to be solid but with winners and losers, and then 1q24 numbers in the Spring. 4q is important, expect good news, but Spring is the big one. If these are solid, one might expect consumer sentiments to become more positive too. Warmer weather, better economics, everyone working —- I can easily see Biden pulling it off if economic attitudes pick up in the Spring. Spring may bring a re-birth of positive feelings about the economy. In which case, Trump loses.

    I remember Obama’s rope-a-dope economy, painfully slow, but always marching forward, and his 2012 election after his 2010 mid-term Tea party disaster. Bad economy, bad consumer confidence, lost the mid-term, then Benghazi right before the vote, he was doomed. He still pulled it off when every statistic said one-term wonder. It can happen.

    Attitudes are bad but attitudes are rearward facing and attitudes can change even before you count them. Numbers are pretty good, except for the attitudes, and the border, both of which can change well before the election.