Is Harris fading?
(Editor Note: This commentary was written on the eve of the debate. The author has indicated that one on that topic will follow.)
Shortly after Vice President Harris took Biden’s place as the Democrat standard bearer, she got a LOT of favorable press – and a bump in the polls. The bump was not decisive, but it did give her better numbers than Biden. In some cases, she inched past Trump within the margin of error. That generated a lot of giddy speculation that Harris would be surging past President Trump. For the Democrats, it seemed like “Happy Days Are Here Again” was in an endless loop.
In previous commentaries, I suggested that the celebratory language might be a bit premature. Harris has two problems. Her past policy positions are too far to the left for the American voters … and she does not sustain well over the longer haul.
To address the first problem, Harris has created the New Harris – literally reversing her position on major issues, such as now favoring the building a border wall, allowing fracking, not supporting Medicare-for-all and even ending her opposition to plastic straws.
She claimed that these — and other flip flops — did not reflect a change in her values. Really? If there was no change in her values, it can only mean that she has only one core value … cynical pragmatism.
That was reaffirmed by Vermont’s socialist Senator and Harris booster Bernie Sanders. When asked in a CNN interview if the Harris’ reversals mean she is abandoning the progressive policies Sanders’ loves so much. He said “no” – and added that Harris is just being pragmatic to win an election. Obviously, Sanders believes that Harris will be back in the progressive fold if she wins the election. (Finally, something Sanders and I agree upon.)
Harris’ second problem is sustainability in the long run. She has never won a national election – or any election outside of California. When she did enter the presidential race in 2020, there was great hope and enthusiasm (sound familiar?), but it quickly faded as folks got to know her better.
She did not win the hearts and minds of the people during her four years as Vice President. In fact, her favorable ratings were worse than Biden’s abysmal numbers — and he could not beat Trump.
We got the first inkling of Harris’ sustainability problem after the Democrat convention — a show of hope, hype and optimism. Contrary to most pundit predictions – including mine—Harris did not get a bump from the convention festivities. That was an ominous sign.
There’s another ominous sign. The New York Times polls that show 47 percent of voters think Harris is too liberal, while only 32 percent believe Trump is too conservative. It suggests that the remake of Harris as a born-again moderate is not yet working.
On the eve of the presidential debate (the time of this writing), there are more ominous signs. Polls generally show Trump closing the minuscule gap that exists between him and Harris – nationally and in the battleground states. The trend in the past couple weeks has been to Trump’s advantage. Several of the recent polls show Trump reclaiming the lead in some states.
A month ago, Harris had a comfortable lead (by today’s standards) in Pennsylvania. Today it is a dead heat – on the very fulcrum of the margin of error. Quinnipiac University poll now gives Trump a 4-point lead in Georgia. The PBS News/NPR/Marist poll shows that Trump is now the choice of independent voters by a 49 to 46 margin
While the shift to Trump is not decisive it is the trend of the moment. Whether that will be changed by the debate is unknown – and will not be known for a week or so after the debate when the dust has settled.
All the shifts are within the narrow band of undecided voters. But small shifts in such a close race can be decisive in terms of who wins. It is not a dramatic shift, but if you are Team Harris, you must be worried. Is this the beginning of the Harris Fade?
So, there ‘tis.
What reality are you in? Come on man, listen to Rove.
I think that your white nationalist American isolationist strategy is failing him. You needed more votes, not less. This was your election to lose, and it appears you’re stepping up to the line.
I’m on the cusp of thinking we may take Congress with any Trumplicant on the downstream Congressional ballot tainted by Trump. .
Karl Rove thinks Harris. Thinks Trumpster in the dumpster.
Notable Republicans are publicly shunning him, more to come.
The polls gave her a few points after two days, probably one or two more coming.
Trump is personally unraveling, adding more extremists to his ever shrinking bunker, saying weird things about pets and geese, rambling and growling and ducking anymore debates.
Fox don’t show his rallies cuz they want the Trump win, msnbc won’t show them cuz it’s batshit crazy.
Trump has little money and free press is waining. He’s got 30% of her cash stash and he’s got legal to pay.
And a huge unknown is the silent Republican minority that is not saying anything pro or con about Trump, but once alone in the polling booth with nobody looking, good chance, they vote for Harris or not at all.
I think you are down to praying for the October surprise. That’s good, I would be first to say that Trump is a survivor, has always bounced back in some other form, even when he loses, so I don’t count them out, but I do feel this may be his last hurrah, and that perhaps he should’ve handed off the reins to the next generation.
FYI: I do have to say watching Marjorie Taylor Greene saying that Trump‘s new bunker confident Laura Looney is a racist and too extreme for Greene was priceless.
It’s a real sign of the Trump unraveling that will for a while, reverberate throughout the entire Republican Trumplicant
party.
I think Larry is feeling depressed about Felon Trump losing, and has decided to overcompensate by trying to gaslight us. Every paragraph builds on false statements in previous paragraphs.
“In some cases, she inched past Trump within the margin of error” – yeah, like 3-5 points in all the swing states. That may be within the margin of error, but you were happy to trumpet Felon Trump’s potential victory when he was a half-point ahead of Biden in some places. Margin of error or not, Trump has had a negative 6-7 point change in the swing states.
“Her past policy positions are too far to the left for the American voters … and she does not sustain well over the longer haul.” – Since when are you, Larry, an 80-year old grumpy “get off my lawn” faux-conservative, the arbiter of what is too liberal or progressive for voters? Your only reasoning for anything you write is that you hate the Democrats of 60 years ago and can’t let go of that. And what’s your basis for evaluating the “long haul”? She’s worked her ass off to get through law school, become the first black and female attorney general in CA, she won a seat in the Senate, and she was the first black and female vice President. That’s a long haul in itself, and she’s not done.
“She has never won a national election – or any election outside of California.” – How many people actually run for and win elections outside of their home state? It’s a stupid statement, because the only national election is for the President and Vice President (which she won with Joe Biden).
And on and on… every paragraph has one or two examples of Larry’s hot air… Followed by the real kicker:
“All the shifts are within the narrow band of undecided voters.” – Well, duh. The “decided voters” are, well, decided. She’s overwhelmingly capturing the undecided voters, and that could mean a 10-15 point win in the end – not so narrow!. And even that is understating her rise in popularity. When Dick Fucking ‘shoot ’em in the face” Cheney announced that he’s voting for Harris because Felon Trump will destroy democracy, a lot of Republicans took notice. Even Karl Rove has predicted Trump will lose.
Felon Trump lost the debate, badly, and he’s going to lose the election – by a lot. He’s managed to push off his sentencing for his first set of felonies until after the election, but he’s looking at 5 years or so just for that conviction. He’s got two or three other trials coming up, with strong evidence against him (some of which will be “October surprises” precisely because he has managed to push it out). Melanie has not been around for any of the campaign stops, which suits Trump fine, since he’s got her replacement already picked (Lara Loomer, if you haven’t seen the news). Felon Trump’s life is going to go to hell pretty soon – I hope Larry doesn’t take it too hard!
The truth is that the mulatto is not going to win. As for racism Greene has never been accused of it except liberal assholes. The more the colored bitch talks the more she will implode. Trump will probably debate her again
Well, apparently you’re not the one who should judge racist assholes.
There’s not a chance in hell that Felon Trump will debate Harris again. She embarassed him. A black woman made Trump look like a blathering idiot, and that hurts a white supremicist more than anything. He’s going to hide from her, make excuses about that debate, claim he won, and find even more excuses not to have another. When Felon Trump gets angry, he gets more stupid, and he didn’t have much further to fall.
Felon Trump has already lost. Karl Rove knows it, Dick Fucking Cheney knows it and is pulling Republicans along with him. Harris is now making gains in red states. Latest poll in Alaska shows her only 5 points down. Alaska has ALWAYS been a red state. She’s close in Florida. She’ll win Georgia. She’s already got all the swing states locked up. She got another $50M in contributions in the 24 hours after the debate. Trump got nothing, and is running out of money because he’s paying his legal bills with campaign cash. Harris will be spending a quarter of her campaign cash in PA, more than Felon Trump has left.
You can think what you want, but your white sheets are showing.
COMMENTjust another DUMB A== DEMOCRAT LYING AND DON’T KNOW WHAT THE HELL HE’S TALKING ABOUT . FIRST HE LEADING THE DUMB ASS DEMOCRAT IN GEORGIA BY 4 POINTES AND ALASKA LEADING BY 7 POINTS.AND STRAIGHT UP AMERICA BY 3 POINTS . FACT CHECK IT. AND TO SAY TRUMP IS BROKE . HES JUST WORTH OVER 300 MILLION PLUS HES GOT A BACKER WORTH BILLIONS HIS NAME IS ELON MUSK. FACT THAT ALSO .HARRIS AND HER COHORTS ARE NOTHING BUT A BUNCH LIARS THAT HATE AMERICA . FACT THAT ALSO COME NOVEMBER WILL TELL IT ALL BY A LANDSLIDE . YOU JUST CAN’T KEEP LYING . AMERICA HAS FINALLY WOKE UP.STAY TUNED.
You gotta love racists. They live in a strange past where there’s some sort of quality differences between some races. Yet they have issues with even their own strange definitions to demean.
This time Hammon demeans Harris by calling her a Mulatto. The term mulatto was meant to degrade someone like calling them half-breed, worse than either breed alone, a hateful mixing of races to create something even worse. She’ of Indian and Jamaican parents, no whites….. As, as race devotees like Hammon undoubtedly know, Indians can be either ANI or ASI, not sure which one but she claims Asian descent so, of course ANI. She’s not a black-white mixture. And her parents are smart, educated, people with better degrees, jobs, and experiences than you will ever have, I am pretty sure.
No, Trump said he can take no more debate beatings.
Greene is a racist too: *https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/marjorie-taylor-greene-blasted-racist-videos-qanon-support-faces-gop-n1236356* Like you outed yourself here, she’s on tape, dude.
And now a word from our sponsor, the racist maggot…
Joseph, how is it you got inside of Larry’s brain to exactly know he is lying, and you are truth? How is that possible? You are exhibiting hearsay. That’s wrong by any means. Explain to all of us how you got inside Larry’s brain, please. Tell us how you KNOW what he is saying or will say. Are you God?
Everything Larry writes about traces some lineage back to his hatred of the Democrats of the 1950’s to the 1970’s when he was a Republican in Chicago. You’d think they tied him to a chair and attached power lines to his genitals, he hates them so much. His mind is an open book with not very many pages. But I didn’t have to read his mind – he starts his paragraphs with obvious bullshit, and then builds his case on that. You can read the ones I pointed out above as obvious bullshit, and here’s another.
“Contrary to most pundit predictions – including mine—Harris did not get a bump from the convention festivities.” I don’t recall Larry or any other pundits saying she wouldn’t get a bump from the Democratic convention, mostly I remember people saying she probably would. In fact, the Trump campaign put out a statement saying, “we expected a bump for Harris after the convention, but it won’t last.” The Harris campaign took in $80M in the 4 nights of the DNC, plus $7M in the single hour after she accepted the nomination. Vote.org reports big increases in registrations of people under 35. Some polls said she got a bump, other’s didn’t. So, she got a huge amount of money, she got a huge amount of registrations in the Democratic sweet spot, and the polls go both ways. I’d follow the money if I were you. Larry can choose to fool himself, but he’s not fooling anyone else (well, maybe Magas, but they’ve already proven themselves easily fooled).
So, if you do any actual analysis of Larry’s writing, he’s wrong most of the time. He starts his columns with bold statements like “All Democrats do X” or “All progressives believe Y” or bullshit statements like “Harris is weak because she’s never won an election outside of her home state” – which is both ludicrous and wrong. You don’t have to be a god to know that he just pulled that out of his ass. It’s what he wants to believe, so he writes it in the hope it might come true.
Joseph S Bruder … Is it drinking … drugs … or are just the lowest IQ in your family. You quoted me and responded ..
” ‘Contrary to most pundit predictions – including mine—Harris did not get a bump from the convention festivities.’ I don’t recall Larry or any other pundits saying she wouldn’t get a bump from the Democratic convention, mostly I remember people saying she probably would.”
Look up the word CONTRARY in the dictionary. The pundits — including me — were predicting Harris WOULD get a bump from the convention –but she did. That was the point. Geez! I am afraid you failed reading comprehension.
And I love you childish insults and mischaracterizations of me. LOL But it is not my fault that Bruder is a lot smarter than Joseph. Get over it.
Frank, new information is surfacing that the Democrats are going to kick Harris to the wayside and insert Hillary. Have you heard that yet? Also, I now do NOT live in a trailer, I have a house and 1/3 acre of land. So, your last post to me is untrue, again. Also, since you said I am a hater, I will tell you: it takes one to know one!
Oh, and Frank? That remark about you thinking I am white? Now YOU are racist!
I am sorry that you mistook my guessing you are white for saying you ate white.
Naming a race is not the definition of racist.
Calling someone mulatto or colored bitch is usually.
I apologize for your misread and ignoring Hammon’s racist comments in lieu of your white grievance over my guess.
Don’t worry, old Frank {all hat, no cattle} is just an asshole who only gets exercise by jumping to conclusions. Pretty much shows you his lack of a brain that works with anything that resembles logic. I don’t understand his lack of understanding reality either.
AF: I really doubt they will kick the person leading in most polls, some beyond the margin of error, the one who crushed d on doggie Don in debate, and the one with three times his cash war chest on hand, to the curb for yet another old pol who already lost. The voters won’t have it and a lot of the cash won’t transfer. .
Sorry that I mistook your account of 14 years ago with today. Try lived or got stuck in. Glad you don’t live in a beer fan on wheels. The “again”!is not proven and this was not a lie, just a mischaracterization of your description.
Takes one to know one? I guess, but not always. My hate for you is all yours. I don’t have any emotional feelings for you except sympathy for your apparent pain causing you to lash out against those who disagree or factually prove you wrong.
As always, feel better soon. Be happy.
Obviously wishful thinking on your part. Dumbass maggots believe anything they hear if it conforms to their ‘worldview’. Or were you just being sarcastic (like your leader says so much of the time)?
Larry, good article. You gave a great back and forth of right vs wrong. I agree with your sentiments.
I have always said from day 1 Bush is the biggest Anti Trump person on the planet!
This is were Liz the bitch gets here Poison Venom against Trump. ( I stated this day one )
Bush is why most Crooked Republicans were against Trump.
Bush is the Crooked Evil against Trump as Hillary is the regular Evil against Trump.
Trump will help destroy the dynasty’s that they have created with our tax money for decades.
There is NO Political power for any one in politics if the world runs smooth.
Who want to rule a country for a lousy 200K a year and very little power to decide!
Bush backing Kamala is no surprise. My enemy’s enemy is my friend!
I think the demagoguery the Elite have displayed has gone on long enough.
Kamala is the flip side of the same old crooked story!
Continue to be a Sheeple or Vote Trump!
As far as I know, Bush hasn’t backed either candidate. On the other hand, Dick Fucking Cheney did come out and endorse Harris. Now Republicans all over the country are publicly supporting Harris. It’s the end of the Republican Party. Start searching for a new name – “The Know Nothing Party” name has already been used…
Racism is whatever you want to call it. Mulatto. The bitch sure ain’t a full breed. If she was she would have blue gums. Colored bitch. She is colored and I would call her a bitch even if she were white. It’s the idiots who vote for her to just get a darkie in office that is racist
Can hardly wait for Lary’s spoiler alert foreshadowing to appear on PBP. As he rushed this piece to print his prophetic sense of debate outcomes may have led him into conservative brain freeze induced reality deafness.
He may question Harris on everything about being president, but Larry should be nervous about how safe the limb is that he is moving further out onto
Larry’s skin in this game is not a good bet to go the distance and finish well. In fact Larry’s rep that proceeds him is vulnerable as he is dependent on his party carrying the day in November. When the GOP takes a hit like in 2020 , Larry’s pieces ln PBP will double down on his Democrat nemesis and continue the usual negativity with his character defining mud slinging of half truths and out right misinformation.