Haley has hit the MAGA wall
Initially, I favored Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. After his campaign began to flounder, I briefly entertained South Carolina Senator Tim Scott. I finally settled on former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley. My only consistency was a hope to have someone other than President Trump as the Republican standard bearer for the 2024 presidential election.
Haley has it all – experience as a governor and the UN ambassador. She is good on her feet. In virtually all polling, she performed the best against President Biden. She would have given Republicans the first woman President. By any pre-Trump political standard, she would be on her way to the GOP nomination.
It now appears inevitable – as much as anything in life and politics is ever inevitable – that Trump will coast to a relatively easy victory in the upcoming primaries – and will officially be the Republican candidate for President.
Haley lost the Iowa caucuses to Trump – coming in a disappointing third behind DeSantis, and partly because of DeSantis. And now she has lost the New Hampshire primary. In both cases, she underperformed. She could have survived with the anticipated second place win in Iowa. And a win in New Hampshire could have gotten her back on track as a serious threat to Trump. A close second – within five points of Trump – might have provided enough wind under her wings to credibly move on to her home state of South Carolina.
Her loss in New Hampshire, however, was not close enough to claim any level of victory. She lost the state by 54.6 percent to 43.2 percent – a humbling 11.4-point margin. A couple more points and it would have qualified as a “landslide victory” for Trump.
In what sounded more like a victory speech, Haley conceded New Hampshire to Trump but promised to fight on. Unfortunately, her enthusiasm was undermined by reality. Oh, she can carry her campaign to the Palmetto State – where she was once a very popular governor. But that was then, and this is now.
Polls have consistently showed Haley losing to Trump in South Carolina – and by a wide margin. Both of South Carolina’s United States senators have endorsed Trump – as has most of the House delegation. It would take a political miracle for Haley to win in South Carolina. And even then, she would be hard pressed to overtake Trump in the remainder of the primary elections.
If she does take her campaign to primary election day in South Carolina, it will almost likely be the end of the trail. Like baseball, for Haley it is three strikes and you’re out. The donors will close their wallets. Political staff will be updating their resumes. The enthusiasm of her voters will wane.
For all intents and purposes, the primary season is over. There is always 2028. Both she and DeSantis could be facing off in that race. But for 2024, it is Trump – barring some unforeseen event. Just as it is Biden for the Democrats – barring some unforeseen event. And the American voters will be left with the two candidates they did not want.
So, there ‘tis.
Hmmm. I liked this story, makes sense to me.
And concur, her not taking her home state will stop the money.
But does Trump toss the vp to desantis? Might be afraid that, unlike Pence, Desantis has a mind and a voice. Maybe Scott; there’s a useful idiot. Or Sinema, that would be funny. Whoever gets the job, remember what happened to rhe last guy.
I think my strategies of voting for grid lock are going to come true. A vote for Biden or Trump are both votes for the extremes, especially if either runs the table – which I view as a grave risk. The only way we can survive four more years of either and not be so subject to the extremes is if we vote for a mix. The question is “Which way should the mix go?” I am leaning GOP Legislature, Dem Senate, Dem POTUS. Bu then I remember Kamala Harris and would never want her having access to the POTUS position. So then I flip to GOP Legislature, Dem Senate, and puke at having to vote for Trump. Then I think of how both parties have ignored the people and are willing to visit this wretched situation upon us! Then I think of Ukraine and the very state of democracy, and the loss of democratic countries over the past few years, and I just get more frustrated. Trump will hang Ukraine out to dry, it will be a revenge for Trump. Ukraine is smart and already preparing for this, which is an indictment of our sorry political system right now. Still hoping for a strong third party candidate, or a Haley miracle, but do not think either will happen. I do think Haley will not worry about SC and will attempt to save her cash and make a good showing at Super Tuesday.
Frank, do you still get emails notifying you of a new PBP article? I have not gotten any PBP emails in this new year.
Tom, welcome back. The Frank Stetson mailbox is a dead letter unlinked mailbox that deletes itself regularly. Do you really think I would check to see what might be there? Goodness, the Horist emails alone might take years off my life :>)
Loved your SC summary. Poor Lyndsey. These guys never learn the Trump burn for standing too close to chaos. Trump beleives loyalty is a one way mirror. His CFO is in jail, his VP hiding in his basement, his fixer went to jail but is out and testifying against him, his advisor just got four months, his “America’s mayor owes $148M in defamation penalties, his three lawyers from the firm Dewey, Cheatham, and Howe. pled guilty to election tampering and will testify against Trump, his kids are in hiding, his communist wife is mia, but his FIL the communist party member is in the cabana house by the pool library looking at the “classifieds” for potential money-making opportunties. Wow, and that list could be tripled if you include the pardons.
your a jackass fs
Frank Stetson … More bs???? When you respond to me, I get an email. When I respond to you, you get an email. That means I get MANY more emails from you than you from me. Maybe 100 to 1????? And if you compare by word count, you win by a mile. If all you have to sell is baloney, buy a butcher shop. You seem to forget that you are obsessed with me. I am not obsessed with you.
Mr. Horist; like I said, it’s a dead letter mailbox for a virtual persona that dumps itself so I don’t have to maintain. I honestly don’t know what you and Tom were talking about beyond your incredible thin skin. It was a joke Mr Horist, but given your response, more accurate than I imagined.
At least this time, you actually tried to discuss the issue, misunderstanding it was a joke not withstanding.
No Larry, I don’t even see email in fake Frank’s mailbox.
Good discussion Larry, sorry to make a joke.
Frank Stetson … You have played this game too often. When you are called out for spreading bs and saying ignorant stuff, you call it a joke. If I applied that to all the bs and ignorant stuff you have written, you would be one of the most successful comedy writers. in America. You should shift your attention to The Onion.
” Do you really think I would check to see what might be there? Goodness, the Horist emails alone might take years off my life :>)”
Yeah, the :>) would never mean it’s a joke.
And where’s the bs, or was that a joke too? are you conflating again?
Hi Frank! Well I hope Larry will check out why I no longer get the email notifications. Yeah it might drive you crazy to look at all of those notifications.
I actually thought of Milania last night while I was watching an episode of “The Honeymooners”. Ralph reminds me a little of Trump and Trixie reminds me of Milania. Then I got to thinking that I have not heard anything about her for months! Like you said, Mia, or maybe AWOL – but either way, definitely not present.
I was watching the news today and could not believe how these GOP Eunuchs are fearing Trump and willing to listen to him on not solving the border issue before the election. Trump does not want Biden getting credit. That’s like saying to the Eunuchs to vote against any compromise law that lessens the problem as a way of helping Trump get elected despite the harm to our country now. Seems insane to me, but that is who the Eunuchs are supporting. And some of the head Eunuchs are Graham and Scott. I about puked when Scott on national TV in the NH primary aftermath on TV expressed his open love for Trump! His lips were only a foot away from Trump – I thought he was going to go for it on TV!
Well, its nice hearing from you again. I miss our discussions.
Tom … Have you actually studied the Senate border proposals? The bill is a disaster. I will be writing a commentary on that, Another question is why Schumer did not take up the House bill two years ago. The claim that Republicans want to keep the crisis going as an election issue is a red herring. I think it would have been better to take up the House bill in 2022 as the initial framework and negotiate from there. Schumer sits on the House bill for two years and then blames the House for being recalcitrant.
Tom … Last question first — although not directed at me. I believe that you only get a notification when someone responds to your comment — and I have not seen you here this month. I only get emails when someone responds to my commentary — not others on PBP. But Frank is still the number one contributor to my email account. And he does not think he is obsessed. LOL
Like you, was hoping for a different person as GOP standard bearer. I see 2024 like 2016 — picking the lessor of two evils. And it is not just about the man. It is, as you note, the fear of a Harris presidency and a whole range of existential policies being carried out by an entire administration. It could be viewed as the choice between a bad guy doing good things and a bag guy (arguably not quite as bad) doing bad things. It is those bad things that trigger the choice. And yes, it is all a matter of perspective and philosophy.
Yes I agree with your comment Larry. As an Independent, I do not like grid lock and much prefer highly functioning government that achieves results for the greatest number of people. This 2024 election cycle is to me more scary than the 2016 cycle. In 2016 we did not know much about Trump’s narcissism, behaviors, nor the extent he would go to in order to maintain power. Now we know. Nikki Haley has been right about Trump. What might help is if Trump announces his VP pick. IF his VP has much foreign policy experience and has Fed Gov’t experience, it might make me feel a little better but it will still be a grid lock vote.
In 2023 I always got emails when you and others had new articles posted. I am not sure why I no longer get those emails from anyone’s post. For now I guess I will just look up PBP on line and see what is new.
Good to connect again. I missed your articles!
Larry, I tried to find the border bill so I could read it. I could not find it. Can you post a link?
Larry, I am no longer getting PBP emails. I have not gotten any PCP notification emails stating a new article posting this year. Can you check into this?
I have not been a Haley fan but now I pray for a Haley miracle, and a strong third party candidate. Asa Hutchinson was the only one of all of them who I felt gave straight answers and spoke the truth. I think if Trump runs, Biden will win. Trump seems to be collecting more and more negatives with every passing week. And if he wins, his behavior will be worse than his first term. I wonder what person would be willing to subject themselves to a more obnoxious Trump? Or would the VP have scheduled visits to jail to find out what Trump wants to do next.
At some point, once out of the primary season, Trump will have to convince Independents and Reagan Dems that all of his legal woes are no problem. If Haley want to stay in, she has to pivot hard against Trump and call him out on past poor performance as well as current behaviors and cases against him; and she has to stop being so political and wishy-washy with her answers on what she would do as president. Haley is still exhibiting fear of Trump.
I still firmly believe at the national level the best approach is to vote for grid lock. This way, only ideas that both parties agree upon will get through. This will limit the progressive left as well as the MAGA conservative right. I used to think a GOP Legislature was more fiscally conservative and responsible – but after the national debt Trump piled up, and his tax cuts that he passed on to our grand children via national debt, I am not so sure. And unfortunately, neither side wishes to solve the border crisis this year for their own political agenda reasons which they hold in higher esteem than We The People! GOP will lose many votes due to abortion issues. Dems will lose a lot of votes due to border issues. Seems like neither side wishes to work towards the middle and solve all of the problems unless it can take full credit for them all. What a wretched system we have devolved into!!!
As for SC senators, I think they are both pathetic. Graham is the world’s biggest flip flopper who likes to tout his military record in Iraq where he actually was safely tucked away well behind enemy lines as a JAG lawyer. Scott showed how he can be a bully and not let you speak and run over an opposing view with volume and using voice to block the other opinion – which he did to Haley a lot thus causing me to lose respect for him.
Bare in mind gentlemen, I am NOT a republican, I am a Trump supporter. I have been a Trump supporter ever since
he came down the elevator.
Everyone else running a campaign is race for a distant second place.
We all know that and knew that months ago. Nothing surprises me about any of this.
His VP will not be either one of these people trying for second.
People support Trump because the approach to business is not fraught with personal back door deals.
Concessions always have to be made when dealing with the World, but even the Democrats can not find personal deals like Biden’s
Family or it would have been exposed years ago. Instead they trout out old crap and stretch for a legal problem.
Remember the Minute Men guarding the border as Bush told the Mexican Government were they were so they could be avoided!
Yes, Crap runs deep on BOTH sides and always will.
These are the reasons I vote for Trump!
And yes, Graham needs to get his head out of his ass when it comes to Abortion.
Trump’s approach to business…. You meaning cheating on business and taxes? His “company” is a family business with lots of lawyers and accountants outsourced. Whatever he sells, it’s the brand that sells. He does not produce much, he does not employ many, it’s all third party. Even most Trump hotels are third party owned, sometimes Trump manages but usually they drop him pretty quick.
For fun, you tells us how many employees and who is in upper management or even where headquarters is.
Heck, any day now we will find out what business he even has left after cheating it away.
I do not have to, he was in business for decades as a business man. And a private company not a public stock.
Not a politician getting into business because he found a way to make money through the back door.
Actually, he is a businessman that found a way to make money through many a back door. He leveraged his father’s business adding his unique blend of shock-marketing and outrageous-branding. I mean gold toilets, Trump water, Trump steaks, yeah — yuge hits.
First, he’s a silver-spooned spoiled rich kid who would have made more money investing his inheritance in the stock market, and not fancy moves either, than he made in business
His first loan collapse almost ruined him as he put his own assets at risk, a business 101 learning he never forgot: don’t risk your own money.
In AC, his father and he got sanctioned for gambling regulations when Daddy came down to help cash-flow strapped Donnie by buying $1M in chips and then destroying the chips to infuse cash into the operation.
He ripped off Trump University struents by fraud
He ripped off his own Trump Charity Foundation by theft
He cheated on his asset valuations to get loans at better rates for cheaters; they calculate he stole $100M in profits.
He cheated on his taxes to pay less than his business would have if he hadn’t cheated
And so on and so on.
It’s pretty hard for any of us to know what a private company is worth, much less one as bzyantine and opaque as Trump’s. It’s impossible to really know what business Trump is really even in. Is it his or just his name? Does he own it, run it, or does he own it and someone else runs it or vice-versa. He swings all ways on this. Did you know there are over 250 Trump companies? Did you know that over 200 don’t do anything. He’s a golf course magnate. Golf courses are really bad busienss in general. Ski slopes look better. The deal with golf courses is to get a few guys who want special accomodations at the 19th hole to invest for that reward. Then you make your low profits but they foot the bill. Hotels are more viable but here, Trump is going into and out of business all the time. And sometimes they don’t even pick up the brand when they pick up the Hotel like the DC Trump Hotel is now the Waldorf — the Trump name had no value to the new owners. That happens to him all the time. Trump’s empire is estimated at over 3B, not the 9B Trump claims, and over half of that is NY businesses which may be disolved shortly. Then we will find out how good a businessman Don really is.
No, most good business folks as well as most billionaires laugh at Trump. Love the luck, can’t see the skills. Based on his Presidential record, sure can’t hire well, can’t make a deal for love nor money, and often illicits loyalties out of fear which is a dam waiting to bust
I will give him this: he has the stamina of a bull and the luck of the Irish to have survived this long.
Really strange but not unexpected – Frank has fixed it so I cannot directly reply to him. I have to reply only in the comment section. Looks to me like he is a coward who can’t take the truth. He bullies where I give him the truth. He is woerses than Biden or trump!
Darren, to the best of my knowledge, nobody has unemployed good hardworking Americans more than Trump. Trump is number one in lawsuits against him. Some of his dirty deals were against elderly Americans that trusted him with their money to build them a condo in FL. He did not deliver. He used bankruptcy to avoid paying them back. Nobody uses bankruptcy law better than Trump. I do not know of anyone who has more sexual harrassment and assault cases against than Trump. When you did into the details, Trump is not a very good business man since businesses are for the purpose of making money; whereas Trump businesses seem to attract bankruptcies. Here is an interesting article with graphs for you to study at *https://www.azcentral.com/pages/interactives/trump-lawsuits/*
Larry, No I have not studied the latest Dem/GOP joint bill regarding the border. I just know what I have heard on the news. I said it years ago that the Dems are trying to build party by asylum laws. Looks like I was correct. All I heard on the news was that it limits the crossings to 5000 a day which to me seems insane. But it would be better than 300,000 per month. I do not trust Schumer. I did not know the bill was available for public view. I thought as of 1/29/2024 it was still being crafted. I will check it out online to see if I can find something. I hope this is not another Pelosi deal where you have to pass it to find out what’s in it.
Larry, I continue to be rather fruitless in finding either the actual bill or an accurate compilation of the bill. What I read seems to even conflict which makes me think nobody really knows the bill except those working on it. I find articles that say 5000 a day and others that say 5000 a week will shut down the border.
The bottom line seems to be a sticking point on illegals coming across the border. Dems seem to want a non-zero number and have set 5000 per day or week depending on which article you read. GOPS seem to be advocating what I would call a zero tolerance policy, zero in, ever. Most other things I read were fine with me. The sticking point is “the number”.
I do not favor zero tolerance policies because too often I have seen bad results from them where the victims get punished. School kids getting suspended because a principal interpreted something the student did as being against the zero tolerance policy. Example: two students fight. Both get equal suspensions. Yet in many cases it was bullying where one student was the bullied victim, and the other was the aggressor bully who gets peer approval and does not mind being suspended. Zero tolerance tends to be blind to reason – yet I think most Americans would agree that we are a nation of reason, and of law. So lets have some sound reason and updated laws!
So I will have to side with the Dems on this ofor now until I see GOP movement off of the zero tolerance policy. GOPs ought to be negotiating the number and where the holding tanks will be. As one is sent back, another can enter the tank. As one is approved for asylum, another can enter the tank. We had a quota under Trump, I believe it was somewhere around 75,000 asylums per year with limits for each country. GOPs should be negotiating the quota and limits. Dems and GOPs should partner on filling the quota and mandatory tying the quota to the Department of Labor unfilled jobs requests that are over thirty days old. All employers should have to submit job requests to the DOL database. E-verify as clean and able to be granted asylum should be mandatory. Successful asylums can then be sent to these jobs in the database, thus there is no partisan unfair loading of immigrants in any one state. If the successful asylum seeker does not have a job awaiting them through family or friend connections, then if they refuse their job assignment, they lose their asylum. And in either case, there should not be allowed what is called “Chain Immigration” for those that entered illegally, except if parents are ill and the successful asylum seeker can afford insurance and/or provide care for them. I also believe we should have a national ID program for all citizens, green cards, successful asylums so that those here illegally can not access services unless they can present bond that they can pay full fare before the service is rendered.
So in the end, I am for a reasonable number for yearly successful asylums, placement in accordance with DOL needs, so they can be immediately productive, and give them support to integrate them into their new environment successfully which would include housing at employer expense and authorized by DHHS, SNAP for one year max, health care at employer expense, ESL mandatory either online or community college for free, and an advocate for legal issues such as the organization called “Legal Aid”. Support would end if they willfully leave their job and do not have another job. Unemployment benefits would be permissible if they lost their job for reasons beyond their control such as employer downsizing, etc. but it would only be for a duration as mandated by state laws.
Tom .. You will soon see my commentary on the immigration legislation. I focus on the House Bill since the Senate has not presented a bill at the time of my writing. So it is difficult to compare provision to provision. I dealt with what is likely in the Senate bill. When it comes out, I will probably have to do another commentary.
Tom, it comes out from now to weds I think. It’s Langford, Sinema, and Murphy, maybe their websites have insight. But any day now.
What people are discussing are leaks or tidbit talking points but not the bill. Horist and others do not have to read the bill to hate the bill.
Johnson declares it’s doa in the house.
McConnell was pushing it but now says it’s in trouble because Don, who does not read documents, he just puts them in boxes to take home, had said he will ruin anyone who votes for it. He vows if they vote yea, he will make them VP, a very dangerous government job.
Without an e-verify mandate and loophole fix funding, who cares anyway. Just putting fingers in the dike. It’s got to include the Grassley e-verify component.
Yes Frank, I have always thought e-verify to be a good thing. I also think we need to link how many we let in to the Dept. of Labor.
Larry, on the news today, 2/2/2024, the comment was made that many on both sides are against the draft border bill. It mentioned that the draft bill has not been released yet for public view.
How did you read the bill? Can you provide a link or post it?
Tom .. You will see my commentary when it gets posts. Franks is wrong as usual. The House DID act and passed an immigration bill a year and a half ago and sent it to the Senate. It is much more than the DUI crap Frank peddles as accurate information. He apparently knows nothing about the actual House Bill. Schumer buried the House bill.. He did not act.. In my commentary I explained that and covered the provisions in the House Bill that is languishing in the Senate. I then covered what has been reported as the general provisions in the agreed upon Senate legislation awaiting introduction, I will write more when we actually see what the Senate proposes in detail.
Yes Larry, the house bill that Shumer buried did come out in the news. I will wait for your commentary.
Funny Tom, again, it’s not out, maybe by Sunday.
Both sides at the fringe don’t like it for polarized reasons. Johnson has said it’s DOA so either the House will bomb it or Johnson does not know his own House. McConnell was pushing it, but Trump tampered that down by hating it, thus the Senate is a questionable vote now too. And yes, the liberal nay’s would be included in both of those.
It’s not a House divided, it’s a House unable to act. On anything except investigations. They did pass the “if you are an undocumented DUI, we will deport you,” now there’s a meaningful bill that will change life in American forever……..
Larry, really, do you have to be such a pugnacious price all of the time. Try simple dialog plrese.
I was 100% correct when I said: “They did pass the “if you are an undocumented DUI, we will deport you,” now there’s a meaningful bill that will change life in American forever……..” They passed that bill recently.
It is a House unable to act: they are the less productive House in decades.
They do have a lot of investigations, perhaps dozens, hard to keep them straight. So far, it’s been over a year, and nada.
No, I did not know anything about the House Immigration bill, nor do I know much about many bills destrined to be DOA at the Senate. So, what’s the point? Learning why Republicans can’t make law that the Senate will pass, or modify and pass in a way acceptable to the House? Or to say they are right, the Senate is wrong and gee, do I feel better?
But thanks for telling something I did not know and will never know more about.
Did you really need to be suce a prickly prick about it though?
I have not a clue what “Horist commentary” covers the failed House Immigration bill in depth. I will look back, hopefully recent. There’s so many words though……. :>)
You have reiterated a point I have made more than once, that it seems that all the House does is investigate. They do not have time for legislation. And now we are in an election year, and neither side wants to give the other side credit for solving the problem. So they frustrate any efforts.
Well lets wait and see what Larry comes out with. And I will take your advice and look for the bill later this week. If you happen to find it before me, please include a link. :>)
Larry, I listened to Senator Sinema from AZ today. She is one of the bill writers.
She verified the GOP claim of 5000 per day.
She also mentioned some things the bill contains that the GOP did not mention such as:
That those 5000 go into short term detention where their asylum claim is quickly dealt with where the outcome is that they are sent home or go to a 6 month detention for intake processing.
That the border can be shut down at 4000, and kept shut down until system resources are become available to work the law as designed.
No more catch and release.
No more releasing into the country for 4 – 10 years until there is an asylum hearing. They stay at the border.
She mentioned that Mexico was not cooperating in the “Remain in Mexico” policy.
She mentioned that the law is designed to take away the advantages the Mexican cartels have that allow them to take advantage of the current laws and entice immigrants to come to the border.
Personally, I think this approach is human and consistent with American values. Zero tolerance is not consistent with American values. I think what she described will stop the enticement if done properly and just might put the cartels out of the immigration business. She indicated the bill should be available this week. I hope so. I intend on reading it and comparing it to your article! I pray that your article will be balanced and not do what the GOP tried to do by just mentioning the number with no other details. :>)
Tom,
I really hope it has e-verfity in it. That’s the best chance to diminish anyone undocumented coming here to work.
I agree Frank, and I want one step further – national ID cards! If you don’t have one you pay full fair for services or immediate deportation if you cannot show legitimate reason for being here! I think the GOP was stupid to nix this years ago!
Tom … I hope you understand that virtually every thing you reported from Sinema is in the House bill that Schumer buried. The could have been working on that bill a year and a half ago. That is how the process is supposed to work. Frank thinks that the House should debate with itself over Schumer’s complaints — and acquiesce to his points before the pass their own bill But Frank does not understand the legislative process. Too busy obsessing over moi. LOL The key question is why didn’t Schumer take up the HR2 — debate it … amend it and send it back to House? When the two chamber do not agree than can go into a joint conference to see if members of both chambers can come up with an acceptable bill. If any one scuttled the process, it is Schumer. In fact, there is no reason for the House to even consider a Senate Bill while their bill has been ignored in the Senate for a year and a half.
Larry, excellent point about Schumer and the previous house bill. I have often said that I do not like McConnell nor Schumer. Both are bad for the country in my view. I think you are correct on this that the older bill should be voted on first. This gets back to my comment that neither side wants to give the other side credit for the solution. And both sides find it advantageous to keep the immigration ping pong ball in motion. As far as what Frank obsesses on, only he knows. And I am pretty sure he will keep it a secret because he does not give interviews. LOL