
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">At this moment, Republicans hold the White House, the Senate and the House of Representatives. ; Conservatives have six of the 9 members of the Supreme Court. ; That is a lot of power. ;</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">At this moment, Democrats have only two areas in which to express power – the courts and the court-of-public opinion. Filing endless lawsuits creates a lot of media attention but does little to push back against the Trump juggernaut. </p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">And public opinion is even less effective against an incumbent administration with real powers headed by a President who will not be running for reelection. ; And calling for civil disobedience and disruptive street action, with the very real potential of violence &#8212; as we saw against Tesla – can result in a backlash.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">While Democrats and the left-wing establishment can make a lot of noise, they are still essentially out of power &#8212; at least for the next two years. All the caterwauling is not likely to impact the decision making of the Trump administration &#8212; or the Republicans in Congress.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">In order to get back in the game, Democrats have to win in 2026 &#8230; period. ; At stake is control of the Senate and the House. ; As it looks from this early perspective, the chance of democrats taking control of the Senate is not good. ; I would handicap it at this time as between 20 to 30 percent. ; ; Even less if Trump’s favorability ratings go up by then.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The House is a different situation. There will be 435 congressional elections in 2026. The GOP currently holds 220 seats and Democrats hold 213. There are two vacancies from Democrat districts. Filling those would put the Democrats up to 215 – a five seat lead for the GOP. That is extremely small and very fragile. Flipping just 3 seats would give Democrats control of the House. That is a very low bar for Democrats.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Just as important as the current situation is the history of midterm elections. ; Historically, the party that controls the White House loses seats in the off years – and often control of the chamber. ; We saw what happened in 2018 when Republicans lost the House.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The unprecedented narrow margin of the GOP lead in the House &#8212; and the history of midterm elections – portends a win for Democrats. ; In fact, I believe it is close to inevitable.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">If Democrats do win control of the House, they will scream from the rooftops that is a national repudiation of the entire Trump administration. ; That would be an understandable exaggeration. ; However, they would have a very real check on the power of the President and the Senate – if the latter remained in GOP hands.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Democrats would have real power in stopping Republican legislative efforts. ; But Democrats would not be able to enact any of their own. ; We would have legislative grid lock. ; That would not prevent Trump from using all the powers of the presidency to pursue his agenda – and that would still be a big advantage.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Another benefit for Democrats if they take the House is that it would put them in a good competitive position in 2028 to make further gains. ; That would obviously depend on who the candidates might be – and that is too unknown even for speculation.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">While I see the odds of Democrats taking control of the House in the 80 percent range. If they fail, however, it would be yet another crushing, mind-boggling win for Team Trump. The donkey party will be more shattered &#8230; more confused &#8230; more irrelevant than they are today. Stay tuned.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">So, there ‘tis.</p>

2026 is just around the corner … what to expect
