There are many reasons that the 2020 General Election is unique. This means that virtually nothing is predictable.
The overriding question is whether in their partisan zeal, the left wing establishment – the Democratic Party, the government bureaucracy, the elitist east coast news media and the entertainment industry – have AGAIN misjudged, misanalyzed and misreported the pulse of the nation.
So, what could make them so wrong again?
The change in voting patterns, unprecedented registrations and an unusually large turnout means that if the polls are at all accurate in hindsight, it is pure luck. They simply have no way to sample such a dynamic situation.
While in the past, early voting was generally beneficial to Democrats, there is no reason to believe that the rule of the past applies to today. Most reports indicate that early voting does favor those who are registered as Democrats – but there is no way of knowing if they are actually voting for the Biden/Harris team. There is some history to suggest that disgruntled Democrats cross over to the GOP more than disgruntled Republicans vote Democrat – notwithstanding the prominent false-flaggers surrounding the Lincoln Project. Trump picked up a lot of Democrats in 2016 – and way back in 1980, they were dubbed “Reagan Democrats.”
Another factor that may be eluding the pollsters and pundits is the increase in newly registered voters. They are almost impossible to sample effectively. Trump seems to have an advantage in that group – and has arguably the best ground game to get them to the polls.
Is there a “silent vote” for Trump? While I have rejected that theory in the past – and the so-called Silent Majority never did appear in Election Day numbers, I am not so sure this year. Because of the intense attack on Trump voters by the left, it seems reasonable that voters will prefer to stay anonymous this time.
The silent vote may be found in the minority community – in which there appears to be some shift to Trump. It is almost impossible to believe that a Black Trump voter would reveal themselves in the community. This is a phenomenon that cannot be picked up by the pollster – which would put their predictions considerately off the mark.
While Democrats will scream voter suppression, there may be an increased number of minority voters not ready to embrace Trump, but not ready to vote for Biden. That results in lower turnout – or fewer minority voters checking the presidential box.
What Trump must worry about is Election Day turnout – when Republicans seem to have the advantage. Because of the record-breaking early and mail-in voting, some analysts see a huge turnout on Election Day. That may not be the case. Many of those traditional Election Day Republicans may have voted early because of the Covid-19 pandemic. We may see a smaller Election Day turnout. That would bring the total vote a bit closer to past numbers. If the Election Day vote is in keeping with record-breaking levels, it would likely mean a Trump victory.
If you are one of those who watches election results like an avid sports fan, keep a focus on the aforementioned trends. They may be … just may be … more predictive than the polls and the media analysts.
So, there ‘tis.