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Taking another look at COVID-19

Taking another look at COVID-19

America appears to be over the hump in terms of COVID-19, but you would not know that if you follow the national media spin.  You need to look at the numbers that they do not report.

First of all, they currently and constantly talk about 6.5 million cases – often using the present tense.  In fact, at the time of this writing, there are approximately 2.5 million ACTIVE cases according to WorldMeters, one of the most reliable sources of statistical information.  That’s right.  Less than half of the number of cases bandied about in the news media are active – presumably spreadable.

Several weeks ago, the number of total cases was approximately 5 million and the number of active cases was about 2.5 million, with recovered cases at approximately 2.2 million at that time.  In the interim period, the number of active cases has consistently held to approximately 2.5 million (largely due to increased testing), but the recovered case count has risen to more than 3.7 million.  This would suggest that we are over the hump.

Of those 2.5 million active cases, there are a total of 14,464 cases (as of 09-09-2020) considered to be serious/critical throughout the entire United States – and that number has been dropping for several weeks.  In the past day or so, the daily death numbers have dropped to approximately 500, or one half of the 1000 daily death rate reported just days ago.  As the numbers drop, so has the never-good-news media reporting.

Despite the Draconian reporting, we have never run short of critical medical equipment and protective clothing apart from some isolated examples in the earliest days when the number of cases soared locally.  Think back to New York City where the makeshift Javits Center medical facility, the special tent facility erected in Central Park and the hospital ship USNS Comfort all went virtually unused at the peak of the virus in the Big Apple.  Despite the speculative fears, we have never run out of ventilators and now have such an abundance that we are shipping some to hard hit nations around the world.

Nowhere have the statistics been more greatly politicized than in the death toll.  The partisan narratives are based on two theories – that there are many more deaths from Covid-19 than reported (and they are the fault of President Trump) or that a lot of people with co-morbidity are not dying FROM Covid-19, but WITH it.

We also know that the number of deaths includes a significant percentage of cases where Covid-19 is “assumed” to have been the cause even though there is no medical evidence that the deceased even had the virus.  How do we know that?  The government figures list the assumed cases separately.  By way of example, those highly reported deaths in New York City nursing homes had an assumed rate of 60 percent.

For reasons of professional sensationalism – with a bit of political bias – the major media tends to report as if the national numbers are surging.  They do this by myopically attributing the increase in cases to spread when much of the rise is due to increased testing.  They also issued panic-style reports when numbers increased as the economy opened.  That was predicted.  No surprise there.  Just as it was predicted that more younger people would get the virus when schools opened to in-class learning.

As the national picture begins to improve, the media focuses on localized spikes – suggesting that they are indicators that Covid-19 is escaping the corral.  Again, these localized spikes were predicted. As one leading medical authority noted, Covid-19 is more like a series of local epidemics – popping up here and there until we reach herd immunity or get an effective vaccine.

The spread of Covid-19 in America – or the world – has less to do with the success or failure of political leaders and medical experts and more to do with the unwillingness of the American people to take the extreme measures that would stop the spread and at the same time crash the nation into a major Depression.

Many say that we cannot have economic recovery as long as the virus spreads, but it is equally true that we cannot have economic recovery if we do what is necessary to stop the virus.  We must suffer a bit of both.  And keep in mind that the most pessimistic projections have Covid-19 being controlled within a year.  A second Great Depression will create suffering and death for a generation.  We must fight the virus and restore the economy at the same time.  That means that neither the economy nor the pandemic can be unilaterally addressed except to the detriment of the other.

So, there ‘tis.

 

 

About The Author

Larry Horist

So,there‘tis… The opinions, perspectives and analyses of Larry Horist Larry Horist is a businessman, conservative writer and political strategist with an extensive background in economics and public policy. Clients of his consulting firm have included such conservative icons as Steve Forbes and Milton Friedman. He has served as a consultant to the Nixon White House and travelled the country as a spokesman for President Reagan’s economic reforms. He has testified as an expert witness before numerous legislative bodies, including the U. S. Congress. Horist has lectured and taught courses at numerous colleges and universities, including Harvard, Northwestern, DePaul universities, Hope College and his alma mater, Knox College. He has been a guest on hundreds of public affairs talk shows, and hosted his own program, “Chicago In Sight,” on WIND radio. Horist was a one-time candidate for mayor of Chicago and served as Executive Director of the City Club of Chicago, where he led a successful two-year campaign to save the historic Chicago Theatre from the wrecking ball. An award-winning debater, his insightful and sometimes controversial commentaries appear frequently on the editorial pages of newspapers across the nation. He is praised by readers for his style, substance and sense of humor. According to one reader, Horist is the “new Charles Krauthammer.” He is actively semi-retired in Boca Raton, Florida where he devotes his time to writing. So, there ‘tis is Horist’s signature sign off.

7 Comments

  1. Donald Titus

    We need more articles like this to counteract the media and democrat generated hype and hysteria!

    Reply
  2. Mike

    Actually we need less articles like this, and more that report the facts. I get it Larry, you prefer a news station that provides you with spin favorable to the President, rather than just the facts that you get from the network commentators, but some of us thrive on the facts, without the hyperbole. Your logic defies me, telling us that the active case count has been holding steady at 2.5 million for a while and recovered cases are 3.7 million (as opposed to 2.5 million a while back) that in no way implies we are “over the hump”. It tells us that we are relatively steady, and not getting dramatically worse. However, due to your desires to spin the facts, you totally overlook what we don’t know, which is ‘what are the long term effects of the trump virus?’ Many people have reported having after effects of the virus, and the simple truth is we don’t know what will happen in time, so the fact that 6.5 million people have contracted a disease that could have long term consequences is a cause for concern-definitely best not to get the disease. Then you attempt to dismiss the death count by telling us “most of those people had underlying conditions”. True, but they were not on deaths door. The only person I knew that has passed was older (yes, even older than you Larry, so really old) but I doubt that his family was ready for him to pass, just because he got the trump virus. And then you try to imply that the death count is not accurate, but the experts will tell you that the death count is inaccurate due to undercounting, rather than over counting as you imply. The excess death count is the basis for their statements, which is far above the nearly 200000 deaths reported. And of course you choose to ignore the elephant in the room, trump should have told the American people in early-February that we had a problem. Had he done so and started a comprehensive testing program, some social distancing, limited large gatherings we likely could have avoided the lockdowns that came about because he didn’t want to alarm the stock market and kept quiet about what he knew. So there tis, just the facts without your spin…

    Reply
    • Adele moore

      For gods sakes just go look at the world meter or Johns Hopkins deaths per 100,000 reports, updated daily. Lay off the proselytizing.

      Reply
  3. Dan Tyree

    Mike I’m starting to think that your father jerked off in a flower pot and raised a blooming idiot.

    Reply
    • Mike

      Dan-Very cute, I’ll have to keep that one in mind. However, cute witticisms do not make up for ignoring the facts, and the bottom line is that the US has done a worse job on the pandemic than any other developed country-we have 20+% of the deaths worldwide and 4% of the population. And I firmly believe (as do most Americans if you believe polls) that is due to leadership failures at the top. So while George may encourage you to “keep it up”, I would encourage you to do a little research that does not include dear donald’s lies and discover the facts for a change.

      Reply
  4. George Holly

    Dan Tyree you’re getting the best of Mike. Keep it up.

    Reply
  5. Dan Tyree

    I did my research. Commiecrats suck. Too stupid to lead.

    Reply

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