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Trump surges in the polls in New Hampshire, now dominates

Trump surges in the polls in New Hampshire, now dominates

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, has jumped substantially among GOP voters in New Hampshire, up 24 points to a total of 35% of the primary voters according to Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling.  

Coming in second is Ohio governor John Kasich with 11% followed by former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina with 10%.

According to Dean Debnam, president of Public Policy Polling “This is by far the best we’ve found Donald Trump doing anywhere during his entire surge.  If anything he just seems to be getting stronger as the campaign rolls on.” 

In one on one matchups, Trump led against Carson, Walker, Rubio and Bush by anywhere from 8 to 23 point, and had a favorable rating with 56% of the voters.

Authors note: Many of the so-called “experts” have predicted Trump has topped out, that his one quarter to one-third of the GOP voters are his maximum. They say he is so well known, voters have made their decision to like him or not, those that don’t will support any other candidate and to the eventual non-Trump winner as the field whittles down.

I disagree with those experts.  Yes, Trump is exceedingly well known, but his team is expert at building and improving brands. The change is not a matter of recognition, its a matter of how people perceive him as a candidate and for better or worse, this is evolving.

Its still very early in the election cycle and Trump could still burn out.  But 35% is enough to win New Hampshire.  

If Trump can keep his messages and ideas fresh, it’s his race to lose. On the other hand, we are already finding his feud with Megyn Kelly to be tedious, and he has to be careful since B list journalists will start to come after him for sport.  Too many of these might will reduce his stature as possible President, and open the door for less confrontational candidates like Carly Fiorina or Jeb Bush.

On the other hand, Jeb Bush has not really started spending money yet, he is running a savvy race and should not be counted out.

Chart below is a not from Public Policy Polling but shows Trumps commanding lead on a national basis.

 

 

 

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