I’m a former intelligence officer.
No, I’ve never been involved in any CIA dirty tricks involving elections. But I do know the basic psychology and methodology of planning an op, how to work on the details, how to analyze the situation from different sides and how to game out how your opponents will be forced to proceed.
But let’s talk about the “odds” for a second. In this case, how likely is it that suddenly at 6 am in the morning, several elections would suddenly shift from Trump to Biden? That someone ahead by 4% points would suddenly be behind? Mathematically it is not all that likely in a race this close. And if it is true that 138,000 votes appeared, all for Biden, none for Trump, that is statistically less likely than having a leprechaun spontaneously materialize in front of you (even if you are not drinking…).
Vote fraud is fairly straightforward. You have a list of who is eligible to vote, you have a list of who has already voted. Simple enough. You have a bunch of blank ballots, pre-filled with the candidate of your choice. After the election is over, at 6 am while votes are still being counted, slip in a couple of extra boxes of votes from people who have not voted and you are good. 100,000 votes is an easy lift in a state-wide election. You can plan this weeks in advance. And with modern technology, you could have the new votes sorted within minutes…
If I had full control of an election to the point where I could keep observers from the other side out until after the count was done, I could rig that election to the point where NO ONE would spot the fake votes. It would take YEARS to prove fraud, if ever.
How would you investigate this? You would have to take ALL of the vote information and investigate each individually, ask the voter if they voted and determine if their answer is credible. This is a messy and unreliable process, since the fraud may be in only one out of 100 votes. People forget, people don’t cooperate, people are hard to find, and of course, sometimes they are dead.
And, of course, if your cheating is successful, your candidate merely shuts down any investigation once he takes office.
Our friend, Larry Horist talks about the good ole days in Chicago, when election officials called up the precinct and said “Hey, I need another 545 votes from you” and they would magically arrive. And everybody knew.
Why keep the observers out? Because a sharp observer will keep his informal count of how many have voted from a particular precinct, and report those to his boss. The boss will keep an eye on the counts. If the count were suddenly inflated then there was a problem.
With mail-in votes, the kind that are not solicited, how difficult would it be to fill out some more and postmark them? It’s not like a postmark is tough to forge, nor would the ballots, even with the “watermark.” No ID required. If you are in charge of the election, just hold back the ballots of dead or unlikely voters, easy enough, if you can keep away the observers.
So what are the odds? Did magic happen for the Democrats that within the space of a couple of hours, with the last couple of percentage points of the vote being counted, that a hundred thousand vote shift occurred? (And why were those particular ballots from very heavy Democrat areas so delayed compared to the surrounding areas?)
Or is it more likely that a party that investigated for three years a report of Russian influence over the President they knew was fake because they generated it – a party who impeached the President over something their own candidate did – a party that played politics with the most deadly pandemic in 100 years …