The gap between Republican and Democratic voters registered in the state of Florida reached a historic low this week, likely a result of the Trump campaign’s aggressive canvassing efforts in the state.
Democrats just can’t compete with the Trump campaign’s “superior ground game and infrastructure,” says Emma Vaughn, a spokesperson for Trump Victory. “The Sunshine State is ready to deliver.”
Indeed, Republican voters narrowed the gap by more than 50,000 voters during the week leading up to the state’s regulation deadline, producing a difference of just 134,242 (with Dems still in the lead).
To compare, Democrats had 535,987 more registered voters than Republicans when Obama won Florida in 2012. They had 327,428 more registered voters than Republicans when President Trump won Florida in 2016.
According to official voter registration data, there are 5.3 million registered Democrats in the state of Florida, 5.1 million registered Republicans, and 3.7 million registered Independents. Democrats currently have a 1% lead over Republicans, but that number may be smaller thanks to North Florida’s Dixiecrats (registered Democrats who tend to vote Republican).
Early voting and mail-in tallies aren’t much to go by, as Republicans are expected to turn out en masse on Election Day.
“Democrats have amassed an overwhelming vote-by-mail advantage and turned out in historic numbers for the primary election in August,” says Carlie Waibel, communications director for Biden’s campaign in Florida. “Democrats are leading in the metrics that will determine this election and returning their ballots at a higher rate than Republicans – and we aren’t letting up.”
Critics say it is too late in the game to attract new voters, but the key for Republicans will be to find Trump supporters who don’t plan on voting and convince them to participate. In 2016, Trump won the state of Florida by less than 113,000 votes.
According to polls, Trump has a less-than-one-percent lead over Joe Biden in the state of Florida.