Voting for the New Hampshire Democratic Primary took place on 11 February. The results as of this writing are:
Sanders – 26.0%
Buttigieg – 24.4%
Klobuchar – 19.8%
Warren – 9.3%
Biden – 8.4%
Steyer – 3.6%
Gabbard – 3.2%
Yang – 2.8%
Buttigieg gave his concession speech around 11 pm, and shortly thereafter Bernie Sanders spoke to a very enthusiastic crowd touting victory.
Two candidates announced they could not continue. Andrew Yang, whose signature promise was $1000 per month for every American, has bowed out. Michael Bennett announced he was leaving the race. Tulsi Gabbard has announced that her candidacy will continue.
What does this mean for each candidate?
Sanders – This was a huge victory, albeit expected, since Bernie Sanders is the Senator from next door Vermont, and Sanders won huge in 2016 against Hillary Clinton. The question is what is his path to victory after this? He will have the funding, and has shown that he has staying power, but can he win enough states to win outright and avoid a brokered convention, where the establishment would be brutally against him?
Buttigieg – Mayor Pete is on a roll, having won Iowa and come in second in New Hampshire, he is a real candidate with real momentum. However, his national polling numbers are not so great, placing him in fifth place. Pete’s only chance to get on a roll is to have a major influx of cash to compete on Super Tuesday, where he will have the daunting task of facing the Bloomberg Campaign.
Klobuchar – Third place is some serious momentum in New Hampshire, especially since her national numbers are very poor at about 4% across America. However, if Biden continues his downturn, if he fails to win either South Carolina or Nevada, then she could get some backing and move up. See below for some wild-ass guessing about how she might succeed.
Warren – Warren has positioned herself as a better far left candidate than Bernie Sanders. Unfortunately, Bernie is the real thing when it comes to far left, and he is rising in the polls, Warren’s numbers have been on the decline since she was called out on how much some of her “plans” would cost. Since Warren really has no more ways to distinguish herself philosophically, I see no path for her to win the nomination. She may have enough cash to make it to Super Tuesday, but it is a wasted effort.
Biden – Biden’s campaign has known for quite a while that they would not do well in New Hampshire, and that their best first chance would be South Carolina. However, the way he left New Hampshire is being characterized by the media as turning tail and running away. He has been pronounced dead by a number of pundits. This was very poorly handled by the Biden campaign and will hurt his chances in South Carolina. But he has a huge lead in South Carolina. Biden is not dead at this point. I’m predicting his political death on Super Tuesday.
Analysis – Fair disclaimer, I don’t like any of these people, I think none of them would make a good President and I think none of them can beat Donald Trump.
But there is a danger to Donald Trump.
Not Bernie. Bernie’s audience has a ceiling, he is a socialist and America will not elect a socialist.
Biden will sink, Warren will sink. Neither have the charisma to beat Trump.
Not Bloomberg. Bloomberg is making headway in the polls, he has unlimited funds. But Bernie supports will NEVER vote for him. The attacks on him have started, he is accused of being a racist, and this is tough to get past in the Democrat Party. I’m predicting the depth of opposition research on Bloomberg is abyss-like.
Buttigieg has some momentum, there is no definite ceiling so he is a wild card.
Klobuchar is by far the most capable of the candidates, having pushed through massive numbers of bills through the Senate. She is well-liked, moderate and if she became the nominee, she would likely have Bernie’s support. Right now, she is underfunded and under-supported.
But here is the danger. If Bloomberg cannot get his numbers he will likely support another candidate. Bloomberg must drop out of the race to be effective.
Mayor Pete? No way in hell. Bloomberg values experience and Buttigieg has none.
However, if Bloomberg supports Amy Klobuchar, then we could have a respectable moderate Democrat backed by the richest election machine in the history of America.
I believe President Trump would still come out on top, but this would be his toughest competition. A Klobuchar/Bloomberg combination is the ONLY possible legitimate challenge to Trump.