One of the indicators of potential political outcomes is not just polling and punditry. It is the odds based on gambling. It is actually a pretty good indicator of the current thinking because the odds will change every day based on the latest events.
One of the more reliable companies that deals with political gambling is predictit.org. In these days of political chaos and confusion, those willing to bet on the future outcomes are giving Trump a bit of an advantage.
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In terms of impeachment, the wagering public sees a 71 percent chance that the Democrats in the House will impeach him. But they do not think Trump will be removed from office. In fact, only 17 percent of the bettors believe that will happen.
What is interesting about those two figures is that the numbers predicting impeachment are going up while the bet that Trump will be removed from office is going down. This suggests that while most bettors believe that impeachment will happen, they do seem to want Trump removed from office. This could be evidence that Democrats are making a mistake in pursuing impeachment.
Forty percent of the bettors believe that Trump will be re-elected. That is not a comfortable margin, but it does not mean that 60 percent believe he will be defeated. More importantly, Trump’s number beats all the other Democrat contenders – with Elizabeth Warren coming closest with 34 percent. Biden is given only a 13 percent chance of becoming President.
But who does the betting world think will win the Democrat nomination?
Warren is overwhelming favored with a 52 percent chance – the only Democrat to get a better than 50/50 chance. Biden comes in a distant second with a 21 percent chance. He is followed by businessman Andrew Yang at 10 percent, Bernie Sanders at 8 percent, Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 7 percent and … what? … Hillary Clinton at 6 percent.
It is a little surprising to see Clinton in the mix since she really has virtually zero chance at the nomination. But it should be disconcerting to folks like Cory Booker and Kamala Harris who fall below the former First Lady.
The only positive news for the Democrats is in the generic question: Which political party will you support in 2020? Democrats top the GOP by 57 to 45 percent. That is usually the case, even when Republicans win big – largely because there have usually been more registered Democrats than Republicans. The more conservative Democrats then stay loyal at the local level, but cross over to the GOP at the national level.
This was borne out in another survey that polled the all-important independents on issues. The Democrat proposals of de-criminalizing border crossing, expanding welfare to illegal aliens, creating universal government health coverage and free college tuition were extremely unpopular with independents.
Of course, all of this will change as we move forward, so be careful where you place your bets.
So, there ‘tis.