Former Vice President Joe Biden is still in the lead despite a 5-point drop during the month of June. His performance during the debate in Miami was impressive, but the debate itself exposed voters to other options.
Foremost among those options is Senator Kamala Harris (CA), who gained 6 points post debate. Her attacks on Biden during the debate were a great way to attract attention and we can expect her momentum to continue from here.
Candidate Andrew Yang jumped a single point after the debate, but we can chalk this up to the “dead cat bounce” effect. His performance was weak and while he may garner a cult following, I expect his numbers to decline.
Former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg also delivered lackluster performances in Miami that will no doubt send them back to the minor leagues where they belong. O’Rourke dropped 2 points this month and Buttigieg is down 1 point.
Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren broke about even in points after a smart performance at the debate (MSNBC gave her plenty of coverage) and Grandpa Sanders is down 1 point following a passionate performance that lacked detail.
According to RCP’s nationwide average, Biden is squarely in the lead with 33 points followed by Sanders with 17.2, Warren with 12.8, and Harris with 7.8. The only other candidate with more than 3 points is Mayor Pete with 6.
The next Democratic debate will be held starting July 30th in Detroit, Michigan.