Leading into next week’s mini-Super Tuesday election, Senator Ted Cruz has a lot of work to do to maintain his claim as the eventual victor and nominee in a brokered Republican Convention. If the polls are indeed the harbinger of Tuesday results, Cruz will be dead last.
Donald Trump as a comfortable lead in all five states and has a clear path to securing enough delegates to reach the magic number of 1237 to clinch the GOP nomination. We don’t believe this will be brokered convention, but rival pundits are not so sure.
Governor Kasich’s support has been steadily increasing nationwide (although not quickly enough to catch Trump) and he has secured second place in 4 of the 5 states with primaries next Tuesday. In the fifth state, Pennsylvania, Kasich is within 1 point in the aggregate of polls and is indeed leading in two of the five major polls. Since February, Kasich’s support has risen from less than 3% to 22%, as others have dropped out. We think his quest for the Vice Presidency is on track.
Ted Cruz is doing poorly in the polls depicting support in next weeks primaries. He is now losing not only to Trump by close to a two to one margin, but also losing to Kasich in four of those five state. If current momentum carries, he will likely be in third place in every case.
On the national front, Senator Cruz has lost momentum, falling from 33% to 30% in the polls nationwide. Kasich’s rise seems to be at Cruz’s expense since Trump’s numbers over the past two weeks have leveled out.
We believe some of Cruz’s problems stem from recent complaints from the Trump campaign that Cruz’s campaign is unfairly maneuvering delegates, in preparation for a brokered Republican Convention. Trump’s label “Lyin’ Ted” has had some impact, especially in light of these allegations.
Writer’s Note: The latest major polls for Rhode Island were conducted in February and are way out of date. And of course, some polls will be found to be wildly wrong. But looking at the various data and applying the WAG theorem (WAG – wild-assed guess), I believe my conclusions and projections will bear out. Otherwise, why write it??