Today voters in Wisconsin handed Senator Ted Cruz a hearty win, at about 50% to Trumps 33%. Kasich drew about 15% of the vote. Cruz had the help of popular governor and former presidential hopeful Scott Walker. This is not surprising since most polls had Cruz in front.
Cruz believes he is on a roll, having picked off all of the delegates in two Congressional districts in Colorado, and also coming out of North Dakota with the support of 18 of the 24 delegates in a rather strange selection process. Trump picked up only one from that state.
Despite these small victories, we stand by our math, that Donald Trump is still likely to win the nomination outright with over 1237 delegates.
As it stands Mr. Trump needs 56% of the remaining delegates to reach the 1237 vote mark. Senator Cruz would need 81%, our math says this is impossible.
If the polls ring true and Mr. Trump wins California, New York, and Pennsylvania, Trump would need fewer than 30% of the remainder, only 162 more delegates to reach 1237. With Chris Christie’s helpTrump will likely pick up another 51 in New Jersey.
National polls suggest he will probably pick up another 60-70 in the “proportional” states where delegates are split according to results. Trump doesn’t have to win these states, but he likely will. This means Trump has 7 final winner-take-all states to pick up about 40-50 delegates out of over 250. Unless his campaign implodes, we still believe Trump is the nominee.
We have noted a great many commentators predicting a “brokered” convention. This is nonsense.